The poll places the Galician PP at 47.5% of the votes and a range of between 40 and 42 seats. The absolute majority in the Parliament of Galicia is set at 38 deputies, so Rueda would maintain enough margin to govern alone.
The political key of the survey is not only in the continuity of the PP at the head of the Xunta, but in the distance from the opposition. The BNG and the PSdeG would together sum between 32 and 35 representatives, below the popular range. In the most favorable scenario for Rueda, the PP would have more seats on its own than the entire parliamentary left.
The PP would retain the absolute majority
The PP would obtain 47.5% of the votes, one tenth more than in the 2024 regional elections.
This percentage would translate into a range of between 40 and 42 seats. In the worst scenario for the popular, Rueda would repeat the current 40 deputies. In the best, he would add two more representatives.
The survey thus confirms the strength of the PP in Galicia, a community where the popular govern with an absolute majority and where Vox still has not entered the regional Parliament.
The most relevant data is that the PP would not depend on any partner. Unlike other territories where the party needs to negotiate with Vox, in Galicia Rueda would maintain a sufficient majority to form a Government alone.
Rueda would have more seats than BNG and PSOE combined
The left opposition would not reach the PP even by adding the BNG and the PSdeG.
The BNG would obtain between 22 and 25 seats. The PSdeG would reach 10. Together they would reach a range of between 32 and 35 deputies.
This would leave the left bloc between five and 10 seats below the PP, depending on the specific scenario within the ranges.
The BNG retreats after its historical maximum
The BNG would remain the second political force in Galicia, but would lose part of the momentum gained in the 2024 elections.
The formation of Ana Pontón would go from 31.6% to 29.1% of the votes. In seats, it would move between 22 and 25 deputies.
The margin is relevant. At the high end, the BNG would retain the current 25 seats. At the low end, it would lose three representatives.
Even so, even in its most adverse scenario, the BNG would maintain more than double the deputies than the PSdeG and would continue to be consolidated as the first force of the opposition.
The PSdeG would remain third
The PSdeG would not take advantage of the BNG's retreat to regain centrality in the Galician left.
The formation led by José Ramón Gómez Besteiro would obtain 13.8% of the votes, two tenths less than in the 2024 regional elections.
However, the provincial distribution would allow it to reach 10 seats, one more than now. This parliamentary advance would not be accompanied by an improvement in the percentage of votes.
The Galician PSOE does not capitalize on nationalist weariness
One of the most significant elements of the survey is that the decline of the BNG does not translate into a clear recovery for the PSdeG.
The BNG loses 2.5 points compared to the last regional elections. The PSdeG also drops, although only two tenths.
Therefore, the nationalist weariness does not seem to be directly shifting towards the socialists. The opposition remains organized around the BNG, while the PSdeG remains in a secondary position.
This limits any possibility of an alternative. For there to be political change in Galicia, it would not be enough for the BNG to resist: the PSdeG would have to grow strongly, and the survey does not reflect that movement.
Vox rises, but would still be outside the Galician Parliament
Vox would be one of the formations that would grow the most in percentage of votes, but would not obtain representation.
The party would go from the 2.2% achieved in 2024 to 3.5%. Even so, it would still be outside the Parliament of Galicia.
Galicia would thus maintain a political singularity within the regional map: it continues to be the only community where Vox has not managed to enter the regional Chamber. In 2024, the formation was left without representation, just like Sumar and Podemos.
The growth of Vox would not compromise the PP's majority either. The survey places Rueda above the absolute majority without the need for external support.
Sumar would also not return to the Chamber
Sumar would remain without representation in the Galician Parliament.
The coalition would barely advance one tenth, from 1.9% to 2%, and would be far from obtaining a seat.
The data confirms the difficulties of the space to the left of the PSdeG in Galicia. In 2016, the brand En Marea competed for the second position; now, that space remains outside the Chamber.
The weakness of Sumar also reinforces the concentration of progressive votes between BNG and PSdeG, although that concentration is not enough to contest the PP's majority.
Democracia Ourensana would risk its seat
Democracia Ourensana also appears in a delicate position.
The local party that managed to enter the Galician Parliament for the first time in 2024 would drop from 1% to 0.7%.
Its continuity would depend on the distribution in Ourense, where it obtained its current deputy. The survey indicates that it could lose weight, although the behavior of local formations usually depends a lot on the province and the level of territorial mobilization.
The PP has the most solid electoral base
The survey also shows clear differences in vote loyalty.
The PP would retain 88.3% of those who voted for Alfonso Rueda in the 2024 elections. This is the highest loyalty figure among the main formations.
The BNG would retain 76.4% of its voters. The PSdeG, on the other hand, would retain only 63.2%.
This difference helps explain the stability of the PP and the difficulty of the PSdeG in regaining ground. Rueda retains almost intact his base, while the opposition has greater leaks and less capacity for growth.
The Xunta maintains a positive evaluation
The advantage of the PP is not limited to the electoral estimate.
According to Sigma Dos, 57.8% of those surveyed support the management of the Xunta.
Rueda is also the only one of the main Galician leaders who approves in average evaluation. He obtains a 5.5, ahead of Ana Pontón, with a 4.4, and José Ramón Gómez Besteiro, with a 3.8.
81.8% considers Rueda's continuity a given
The expectation of government also clearly favors the PP.
81.8% of those surveyed believe that Alfonso Rueda will continue at the head of the Xunta. Only 8.9% bet on Ana Pontón as the future Galician president. The percentage that sees Besteiro at the head of the regional government drops to 1.4%.
The distance in victory expectation is even greater than that recorded in voting intention. The survey not only attributes an advantage to the PP but also reflects a widely held social perception that Rueda will continue governing.
Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo (24/07/2026)
Result of the Sigma Dos Galicia survey
| Party | Estimated vote | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 47.5% | 40-42 |
| BNG | 29.1% | 22-25 |
| PSdeG-PSOE | 13.8% | 10 |
| Vox | 3.5% | 0 |
| Sumar | 2.0% | 0 |