Vox drives the turnaround and the right would reach an absolute majority
The right-wing bloc would achieve 17 seats - the exact figure for an absolute majority in the regional Parliament - thanks to the growth of Vox, which would rise to 5 deputies and 15.8% of the vote, its best historical result in the community.
Paco Núñez's PP would remain practically stable at 34.3% and 12 seats, but the advance of Vox would allow for the first time in twelve years a conservative government alternative in Castilla-La Mancha.
Page's PSOE falls dragged down by Sánchez's national wear and tear
The PSOE would drop to 41.5% of the vote, 3.6 points less than in 2023. Although García-Page maintains high loyalty among his voters, the poll reflects a strong mobilization problem.
The main socialist flight would not be towards other parties, but towards abstention. More than half of those who now say they would not vote supported the PSOE in the last regional elections.
Cuenca would decide the political change in Castilla-La Mancha
The electoral upset would occur in a single province, but with an enormous political impact. In Cuenca, Vox would manage to enter for the first time with a deputy, snatching a seat from the PSOE and causing the change of majority in the regional Courts.
That single move would allow the PP-Vox bloc to go from 16 to 17 deputies and achieve control of the regional Parliament.
Vox becomes the leading force among young people
One of the most striking data points from the study is the generational change. Vox would be the leading force among voters aged 18 to 29, ahead of both the PSOE and the PP. Furthermore, among those under 45, it would consolidate itself as one of the major political forces in the region.
The party of Santiago Abascal also maintains a voter loyalty close to 86%, one of the highest in the study.
The PP could govern without barely growing compared to 2023
The survey reflects a clear paradox: the PP barely improves its results compared to 2023, but could return to government thanks to the growth of Vox and the socialist wear and tear.
Paco Núñez would retain practically the same electoral support as three years ago, but the new balance within the right-wing bloc would open the door to a coalition government similar to that of Aragon or Extremadura.
The alternative left remains fragmented and out of the running
To the left of the PSOE, both Sumar-IU and Podemos would be left out of the regional Courts. The fragmentation of the progressive space would prevent transforming votes into seats in key provinces and would further reduce the left's options for maintaining the regional government.
A change of political cycle in Castilla-La Mancha
The NC Report poll points to three factors that explain the new scenario:
- Structural growth of Vox
- Demobilization of the socialist electorate
- Generational change among young voters
The combination of these elements opens for the first time in more than a decade a real window for a PP and Vox government in Castilla-La Mancha.
Source: NC Report for Lanza, published on 05/08/2026.
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 12 | 34,3 |
| PSOE | 16 | 41,5 |
| Vox | 5 | 15,8 |