The demographic map of July leaves a much clearer picture than the differences between one poll and another suggest: the PP continues as the leading force, the PSOE is clearly moving below the result obtained in 2023 and Vox consolidates a growth that is decisive for the balance between blocs.
The average of polls for the general elections by Demócrata, calculated from the five national surveys published during the first days of July, places the PP at 32.5%, the PSOE at 26.3% and Vox at 17.5%.
Sumar appears at 6.7% and Podemos at 2.9%.
The sum of PP and Vox thus reaches 50% of the vote, while the space formed by PSOE, Sumar and Podemos gathers 36%. The difference between the two state blocs widens to 14 points.
This is the average of July polls
The average compiled by Demócrata offers the following estimate:
- PP: 32.5%
- PSOE: 26.3%
- Vox: 17.5%
- Sumar: 6.7%
- Podemos: 2.9%
The average includes polls from More in Common, Ipsos, 40dB, SocioMétrica and NC Report published between July 1 and 6. It is a simple arithmetic average, without weightings for sample size, age, or historical performance of each pollster.
Five polls and one same conclusion: the PP wins
Although the estimates present important differences, the five surveys agree on the order of the top three forces: the PP wins, the PSOE occupies the second position and Vox consolidates as the third party.
The PP ranges between 31.2% from Ipsos and 34.5% from NC Report. The PSOE oscillates between 25% from NC Report and 28% from 40dB, while Vox appears between 16.9% from SocioMétrica and 18.5% from Ipsos.
PP and Vox jointly reach 50%
The main conclusion of the average is not solely in the PP's advantage over the PSOE. It is in the joint strength of the space formed by PP and Vox.
Both parties add up to a 50% vote estimate, compared to the 36% gathered by PSOE, Sumar and Podemos. The gap therefore reaches 14 points.
The figure also clearly exceeds the combined result obtained by PP and Vox in the 2023 general elections, when they gathered approximately 45.5% of the votes. The bloc's growth is mainly explained by Vox's advance, as the PP's average remains slightly below the 33.1% it achieved on July 23.
The PSOE is more than six points behind the PP
The average places the distance between PP and PSOE at 6.2 points.
The data is especially relevant because it does not respond to a single extreme poll. Even the most favorable poll for the PSOE of the five analyzed, that of 40dB, places the socialists four points behind the PP. At the opposite extreme, NC Report widens the gap to 9.5 points.
The average for the PSOE, at 26.3%, is also 5.4 points below the socialist result in the general elections of July 2023.
The PP, on the other hand, maintains a position much closer to its last electoral result. This difference suggests that, for now, the main change in the cycle is not an extraordinary rise of the popular party, but the socialist retreat and the strengthening of Vox.
Vox consolidates its growth above 17%
Vox obtains an average of 17.5%, more than five points above the 12.4% achieved in the general elections of 2023.
None of the five polls analyzed place Santiago Abascal's party below 16.9%, and two of them place it above 17.8%.
Its advance compensates for the PP's stability and raises the right-wing bloc as a whole to the threshold of 50%.
Projections place PP and Vox between 196 and 210 seats
A national vote average does not allow for a direct calculation of the distribution of seats in Congress, because deputies are assigned by province and the result depends on the territorial distribution of support.
However, the three polls from July that do offer seat projections agree in granting an absolute majority to PP and Vox.
Ipsos calculates 196 deputies between the two parties; SocioMétrica raises the sum to 205; and NC Report places it in a range between 206 and 210 seats. The absolute majority in Congress is 176.
This is not a projection by Demócrata, but the range offered by polls that publish provincial seat estimates.
Sumar and Podemos do not absorb the socialist fall
Sumar obtains an average of 6.7%, while Podemos remains at 2.9%.
The sum of both formations reaches 9.6%, clearly below the 12.3% achieved by the unified Sumar candidacy in the general elections of 2023.
The fragmentation of the space to the left of the PSOE does not seem to be recovering, at the moment, the votes lost by the socialists. PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos together account for 36%, eight points less than the sum of PSOE and Sumar in the last general elections.