Carles Puigdemont still cannot return to Spain with full legal security. The reason is simple: the national arrest warrant against the former president of the Generalitat is still in effect and the amnesty law, although it has already been generally endorsed by European justice, has not yet been effectively applied in the case that remains open in the Supreme Court.
The case is now in a decisive phase. The Constitutional Court must resolve whether the Supreme Court's refusal to grant amnesty for the embezzlement attributed to Puigdemont violated his fundamental rights. Until that decision arrives, the return of the leader of Junts continues to depend on a chain of judicial resolutions and not just on a political decision.
The amnesty has not yet erased his case
The amnesty law was approved to extinguish criminal, administrative, and accounting responsibilities linked to the procés within the limits set by the law itself. However, its application has not been automatic for all those charged.
In Puigdemont's case, the central point is the embezzlement. The Supreme Court understood that this crime was not covered by the amnesty in the terms proposed by the former president's defense and maintained the national arrest warrant. That decision was appealed to the Constitutional Court, which accepted the appeal but did not provisionally suspend the arrest warrant.
What Europe has said
The Court of Justice of the European Union, the CJEU, endorsed the amnesty law in July in relation to community law. The ruling cleared up one of the major doubts surrounding the law: whether the pardon of certain crimes linked to the procés conflicted with European rules on the protection of the Union's financial interests or with regulations on terrorism.
This European endorsement politically and legally strengthens the law, but it does not equate to an automatic authorization for Puigdemont to return to Spain. The decision from Luxembourg sets the general framework, but the concrete application to each case still corresponds to the Spanish courts.
The role of the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court remains a central piece because it was the body that decided not to apply the amnesty to Puigdemont for the embezzlement and to maintain the arrest warrant. That position is what practically prevents the former president from returning without exposing himself to being arrested.
If the Constitutional Court corrects the Supreme Court, the High Court would have to apply the doctrine established by the guarantees body and review Puigdemont's procedural situation. If the Constitutional Court endorses the Supreme Court's interpretation, the scenario for his return would remain blocked, except for new appeals or subsequent decisions.
The key date: September 22
The date that is now the focus of attention is September 22. That day, the Constitutional Court is expected to begin deliberating on the first relevant appeal related to the application of the amnesty to leaders of the procés convicted or prosecuted for embezzlement.
The importance of that deliberation does not only affect the specific case being studied first. The doctrine set by the Constitutional Court can pave the way for the rest of the pending appeals, including Puigdemont's. For this reason, in the independentist environment and in the Government, this date is seen as the moment that could unlock, guide, or definitively delay the return of the former president.
Why the Constitutional Court is decisive
The Constitutional Court does not have to decide whether the amnesty is politically more or less favorable, but whether the Supreme Court's interpretation respected Puigdemont's fundamental rights and the scope of the law approved by the Cortes Generales.
The key is to determine whether the embezzlement of the procés falls within the amnistiable assumptions or if, as the Supreme Court maintained, it can remain outside the norm. That answer determines whether Puigdemont is covered by the amnesty or continues under the threat of arrest if he steps on Spanish territory.
What happens with the arrest warrant
As long as there is no resolution that changes the situation, the national arrest warrant remains in effect. The Constitutional Court itself rejected suspending it provisionally when admitting Puigdemont's appeal, understanding that doing so would mean anticipating the substance of the matter.
This means that the former president can move abroad, but he does not have a guaranteed ordinary return to Spain. If he enters Spanish territory before the warrant is lifted, he is exposed to police action and to being placed at the disposal of the judiciary.
The precedent of his appearance in Barcelona
The current situation has a very recent precedent in political memory: the appearance of Puigdemont in Barcelona in August 2024, coinciding with the investiture of Salvador Illa. That fleeting return, followed by a new departure from Spain, highlighted the tension between the political calendar, the strategy of Junts, and the existing judicial orders.
Two years later, the scenario is still conditioned by the same underlying question: whether Puigdemont can return as an effective beneficiary of the amnesty or if the Supreme Court maintains the capacity to uphold the case for embezzlement.
What does Puigdemont need to return without risk
For Puigdemont to be able to return to Spain without the risk of arrest, several steps are practically necessary. First, the Constitutional Court must resolve the pending appeals regarding the application of the amnesty and establish a doctrine favorable to including the embezzlement of the procés within the norm. Then, the Supreme Court must apply that doctrine to the specific case of the former president. And finally, the national arrest warrant must be lifted.
Only then would the return cease to depend on a political or symbolic operation and would become a legally secure return. Until that moment, any entry into Spain would still be marked by uncertainty and the possibility of an arrest.
A decision with political impact
The Puigdemont case is not just a procedural matter. His return directly affects the political balance in Catalonia, the relationship between the Government and Junts, and the judicial closure of the procés. The amnesty was a central piece of the legislature, but its real effectiveness is now measured in the courts.
If the Constitutional Court opens the door to the amnesty for embezzlement, Puigdemont's return could approach in the last stretch of the year. If it does not, the blockage would continue and the former president would remain outside Spain, with the arrest warrant as the main obstacle.
The short answer: the Constitutional Court is still pending
The situation can be summarized as follows: the amnesty law is in force, the CJEU has endorsed its European fit, but Puigdemont is still not effectively amnestied in the case that affects him. The arrest warrant remains active because the Supreme Court did not apply the norm for embezzlement to him and the Constitutional Court has not yet resolved the substance of his appeal.
For that reason, the key decision is now in the Constitutional Court. Until the guarantees body establishes doctrine and the Supreme Court acts accordingly, Puigdemont does not have a guaranteed safe return to Spain.