Esade calculates that the Spanish economy could advance between 2.2% and 2.3% in 2026, practically double that of the Eurozone, whose GDP would increase around 1.1%. In its opinion, the great challenge to consolidate this pace of expansion is to increase the productivity and supply capacity of the productive fabric.
These forecasts are included in the Economic and Financial Report for the second half of 2026, prepared with the support of Banco Sabadell and coordinated by Esade professor Omar Rachedi. The document places Spain in a "comparatively solid position against the Eurozone," supported by the dynamism of employment and consumption, "healthier" private balances, and a "more diversified" foreign economy. Furthermore, the central scenario contemplates that the growth forecast for this year could be slightly revised upwards.
The study concludes that the Spanish economy is entering a new stage of the cycle: after several years in which progress has been based on employment, consumption, tourism, European funds, and demographic momentum, the challenge now is to consolidate that growth through an increase in productive capacity.
Along these lines, the authors anticipate a progressive normalization of growth in 2027, towards rates closer to the potential of the Spanish economy, and warn that several of the recent engines are beginning to lose steam. European funds are facing their final stretch, tourism "is at levels that are difficult to surpass," the fiscal margin will be "more reduced," and the labor market is approaching levels where "it will be more complex to continue reducing unemployment without strengthening productivity."
Given this context, the report proposes boosting investment in technological capital and R&D&I, adapting continuous training to the new needs of the labor market, favoring the growth of SMEs, and executing pending European funds with a greater multiplier effect.
In the international arena, Esade highlights that the global economy maintains a "notable" capacity for adaptation thanks to the push of technological investment and the resilience of the United States and a large part of Asia. However, it warns that geopolitical and energy tensions continue to put pressure on inflation and limit the room for maneuver of central banks.
The report also highlights that Spain has "relevant advantages" in renewable energies, regasification capacity, and relative improvement in industrial energy prices, although it deems it essential to reinforce grids, storage, and electrical interconnections to transform that potential into a genuine competitive advantage.