The Ibex 35 closed this Monday with a fall of 0.25%, to 19,335.70 points, in a day once again marked by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. The military escalation between the United States and Iran has once again driven up oil prices, placing Brent crude near 80 dollars, a movement that has favored oil companies but has punished companies especially exposed to rising energy costs, such as airlines.
Although the decline of the Spanish selective index was moderate, the session reflected a clear rotation between sectors. Investors sought refuge in energy and defensive companies, while reducing positions in tourism, renewables, and some real estate stocks, awaiting a week that will be marked by the start of earnings season in the United States and by the evolution of the conflict in the region.
Oil once again sets the market's course
The main reference of the session has been, once again, oil.
Brent, the benchmark in Europe, rose 4.26%, to 79.25 dollars per barrel, while US West Texas advanced 4.37%, surpassing 74 dollars.
The reaction comes after a new escalation of the conflict. The United States launched a new offensive against Iranian military targets overnight with the aim of reducing Tehran's capacity to threaten navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Hours later, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responded by attacking bases with US presence in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
Despite the increase in tension, US President Donald Trump assured this Monday that the Strait of Hormuz remains open under US protection, although he announced the imposition of a 20% tax on goods transiting through this strategic maritime route.
For the markets, the main fear remains an interruption of the global oil supply. Although several investment firms believe that maritime traffic will eventually normalize, the increase in geopolitical risk has been enough to strongly boost crude oil prices.
Repsol leads the Ibex thanks to the strong rebound in oil
The main protagonist of the session has been Repsol, which has appreciated by 4.07%, becoming the best performing stock on the Ibex.
The explanation is simple. A higher oil price improves the revenue outlook for the Spanish oil company's exploration and production business, so the market reacted quickly by rewarding the company.
Whenever Brent experiences sharp upward movements, Repsol usually ranks among the most benefited companies in the Spanish market, although a prolonged escalation could also end up affecting economic growth and reducing global fuel demand.
Telefónica once again acts as a safe haven
The second largest increase of the day corresponded to Telefónica, which advanced 2.55%.
In times of uncertainty, investors tend to seek companies with recurring revenues and less exposure to the economic cycle. Telecommunications continue to be one of those sectors considered defensive, which explains the operator's good performance in a session dominated by caution.
Acerinox and Iberdrola join the buying
Also noteworthy were Acerinox, with an increase of 2.31%, and Naturgy, which gained 2.14%, while Iberdrola managed to close with an advance of 1.15%.
In Iberdrola's case, the market once again valued the defensive profile of the electricity company, capable of maintaining high cash generation even in scenarios of high economic uncertainty.
IAG suffers again from the rising cost of fuel
On the other hand, IAG stood out, losing 2.21%.
Airlines are among the most affected companies when the price of oil increases, as fuel represents one of their main operating costs. Although large companies use hedging to limit the impact of these increases, high oil prices for a long time end up reducing their margins.
Furthermore, the conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty about certain air routes and increases the risk of additional cost increases.
Solaria prolongs the falls in the renewable sector
Solaria fell 2.37%, ranking among the worst performers of the day.
Renewable companies continue to show high sensitivity to interest rate movements. Although expensive oil may favor the energy transition in the long term, the market continues to penalize companies with higher financing needs when expectations rise that central banks will keep rates high for longer.
Ferrovial and Merlin also feel the uncertainty
Among the biggest falls were also Ferrovial (-1.41%) and Merlin Properties (-1.40%).
Infrastructure and real estate companies are usually affected when financial costs rise and debt profitability increases, as both factors reduce the attractiveness of investment-intensive businesses.
Santander modifies the ERE while the banking sector awaits results from the United States
On the business front, Banco Santander revised its staff adjustment proposal upwards after incorporating some of the demands made by Comisiones Obreras, including coverage of the special agreement until 63 years and six months.
On the stock market, however, the financial sector experienced a relatively calm session, with investors awaiting the start of the earnings season in the United States, where the country's main banks will present their accounts this week.
The figures will serve to measure the impact that high interest rates are having on the profitability of the banking business and could set the tone for the sector in the coming weeks.
Europe holds up better than the Spanish market
While the Ibex closed in negative territory, the rest of the European stock markets managed to end the day with slight gains.
The British FTSE 100 gained 0.01%, the French CAC 40 rose 0.31%, the German DAX advanced 0.19%, and the Italian FTSE MIB gained 0.37%.
In contrast, Wall Street was trading with losses at the close of European markets, with declines of 0.21% for the Dow Jones, 0.37% for the S&P 500, and 0.82% for the Nasdaq 100.