The Ibex 35 closed this Wednesday with a decline of 0.05%, down to 20,204.40 points, after starting the day positively and managing to exceed 20,280 points again. The Spanish index remains, despite the slight drop, very close to its historical highs.
The main reference of the session has been the inflation data from the United States. The CPI moderated in July to 3.4% year-on-year, one-tenth less than in June, while prices increased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Core inflation stood at 2.5%.
The moderation reduces some of the pressure on the Federal Reserve, although it does not completely clear the scenario for September. Markets cut the probabilities of a new rate hike after the data was released, but the persistence of energy inflation continues to be one of the main risks.
Solaria, ACS, and Sabadell lead the gains
Among the best-performing stocks of the day were Solaria (+2.75%), ACS (+2.22%), Acciona (+1.61%), Cellnex (+1.48%), Banco Sabadell (+1.20%), and Unicaja (+0.85%).
The advance of Sabadell places banking back among the supports of the index. For the small shareholder, the sector remains especially conditioned by expectations about interest rates: a less restrictive monetary policy can gradually reduce financial margins, although it can also lower financing costs and alleviate the risk of default.
ACS, for its part, continues its good performance on a day when it was among the main risers of the selective.
Inditex and Repsol hold back the Ibex
On the opposite side, Inditex has led the corrections with a drop of 1.66%, followed by Fluidra (-1.45%), Amadeus (-1.34%), Repsol (-1.14%), and Rovi (-0.94%).
The drop of Inditex is particularly significant due to the company's high weight within the Ibex. For the retail shareholder, the movement of a single session is less relevant than the evolution of its sales, margins, and cash generation, especially after the strong revaluation accumulated by the Spanish market.
Repsol also ended in negative despite oil remaining close to 89 dollars. Brent was trading around 88.9 dollars at the European close, after five sessions of strong gains.
The reaction reminds that the quotation of an oil company does not automatically replicate the daily movement of the barrel: future expectations about demand, refining margins, gas, investments, and shareholder remuneration also intervene.
Energy continues complicating disinflation in the US
Although the US CPI has moderated to 3.4%, energy prices continue to rise strongly: they rose 14.7% year-on-year in July, while food advanced 3%.
The data is especially relevant for the markets because persistently expensive oil can hinder new reductions in inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's room for maneuver.
The market thus finds itself in a divided scenario: slightly lower inflation reduces the need for new rate hikes, but the energy crisis keeps the risk of prices accelerating again open.
Hormuz maintains geopolitical pressure
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the main focus of uncertainty for the energy market. Donald Trump has assured that the United States maintains "total" control of the maritime passage, while Iranian authorities condition its reopening on a broader ceasefire, the lifting of the US blockade, and other concessions.
The absence of a stable agreement keeps the geopolitical premium incorporated into oil high. The International Energy Agency has also revised its outlook for the market in a scenario conditioned by difficulties in normalizing transit and by the decline in reserves.
For investors in the Ibex, the evolution of Hormuz can produce opposite effects: expensive oil can favor certain businesses of Repsol, but it harms fuel-intensive companies and raises inflationary risks for the entire market.
The Antin case adds a new reference for renewables
The day has also left a judicial novelty related to Spanish renewable energies. A federal court in the District of Columbia has allowed progress in the execution in the United States of the ruling of the so-called Antin case, related to the changes made by Spain in the renewable premium regime.
The decision allows creditors to seek Spanish assets in U.S. territory and register the judgment in other judicial districts. The procedure originates from the investments made by Infrastructure Services Luxembourg and Energia Termosolar and the subsequent arbitration raised under the Energy Charter Treaty.
The matter introduces an additional reference for a sector that this Wednesday, however, has recorded positive stock market behavior, with Solaria leading the Ibex.
Europe also closes in negative
The slightly bearish tone has spread to the main European markets. London has dropped by 0.10%; Paris, by 0.46%; Frankfurt, by 0.23%; and Milan has ended practically flat, with a decrease of 0.01%.
The reaction shows that the U.S. inflation data, despite moderating, has not been enough to maintain the purchases that dominated the first hours of trading. The Ibex also lost its initial momentum and ended the day with a minimal cut.
In fixed income, the yield of the Spanish ten-year bond has stood at 3.599%, practically unchanged from Tuesday, while the risk premium has remained around 44 basis points.
The euro has also recorded reduced movements against the dollar and has stood around 1.154 dollars.