Moreno brushes the absolute majority, but remains on the wire
One month before the Andalusian elections, Juanma Moreno's Popular Party has the absolute majority within reach, but not secured. That is the main conclusion of the IMOP survey, which places the PP between 53 and 55 seats, just at the threshold of 55 that mark the absolute majority.
In percentage of vote, the populars reach 42%, which represents a slight setback of 1.1 points compared to 2022. Even so, Moreno maintains a very wide advantage and consolidates his position as clear favorite to remain at the head of the Junta.
The PSOE sinks and records its worst historical result
The big finding of the poll is in the PSOE. The candidacy of María Jesús Montero does not manage to gain ground and remains between 27 and 29 seats, below the 30 that Juan Espadas obtained in 2022.
In votes, the PSOE reaches 23.2%, which reflects a structural stagnation despite the wear and tear of the autonomous government. The distance with the PP shoots up to almost 19 points and more than 25 seats.
The survey thus confirms that the PSOE does not manage to rebuild an alternative in Andalusia and maintains a very weakened electoral floor.
Vox grows, but less than in the rest of the electoral cycle
Vox improves its results compared to 2022, going from 14 seats to a range of between 18 and 20 deputies.
However, its growth moderates in comparison with other territories. With 15.4% of the votes, it remains below the results obtained in Extremadura, Aragón or Castilla y León in recent months.
That is to say, Vox advances, but not enough to alter the political balance by itself.
The right consolidates as dominant bloc
The analysis by blocs reinforces the underlying trend of the electoral cycle. PP and Vox add up to 57.4% of the vote, which consolidates a clear majority in Andalusia.
If the residual support from other formations like SALF is added, the right-wing bloc is close to 60%, in line with what has been seen in other communities.
The sum of PP and Vox is thus confirmed as a structural majority in the Andalusian electorate.
The alternative left resists with slight changes
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the scenario is of stability with slight movements.
Por Andalucía remains around 4–5 seats, while Adelante Andalucía grows to 3–4 deputies, improving its position compared to 2022.
In total, this space adds something more, but remains far from compensating the weakness of the PSOE.
Moreno, the only leader who approves
The poll also reflects clear differences in the assessment of the candidates.
Juanma Moreno is the only one who exceeds the pass mark, with an average score of 5.5, which reinforces his profile as a consolidated and transversal leader.
In contrast, María Jesús Montero obtains a rating of 3.3, with a high level of rejection: 30% of respondents give her the worst possible score.
The rest of the candidates presents lower levels of knowledge, which limits their electoral impact.
An open result that depends on few seats
Despite the advantage of the PP, the final result remains open. The absolute majority depends on one or two seats, which makes the campaign a decisive factor.
IMOP for El Confidencial, (16/04/2026)
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 53-55 | 42 |
| PSOE | 27-29 | 23,2 |
| VOX | 18-20 | 15,4 |
| Por Andalucía | 4-5 | 6,9 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 3-4 | 6,2 |