Survey Andalusia elections: Moreno caresses absolute majority, doubles Montero and Vox consolidates its growth, according to 40dB

The poll draws an Andalusia in which the Popular Party would not only govern alone again, but would obtain double the deputies of the PSOE. The popular would reach 43.3% of the votes and between 54 and 57 seats, compared to the 23% and 27-29 deputies that María Jesús Montero would achieve, who is heading for the worst result in the history of Andalusian socialism.

Moreno consolidates his hegemony and maintains the absolute

The PP would lose barely two seats compared to the 58 obtained in 2022, but would remain at historic levels. The key to the result lies in the strength of Juanma Moreno's personal brand, who is considered the best possible president for Andalusia by 37.1% of those surveyed, more than 20 points above María Jesús Montero.

Furthermore, 77.1% of those who voted for the PP in 2022 would repeat their support, and the party is the one that captures the most voters from abstention.

The PSOE remains at its lowest and Montero fails to activate the electorate

María Jesús Montero does not manage to alter the underlying trend. The PSOE would remain at 23% of the votes and an average of 28 seats, two fewer than in 2022 with Juan Espadas, with Montero signing the party's worst historical result in Andalusia.

The survey reflects a structural weakness of Andalusian socialism: it only retains 63.9% of its voters and loses support to the PP, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía. Furthermore, 8.3% of its former voters remain undecided a week before the elections.

Vox grows, but remains far from conditioning the Government

Vox would slightly improve its results and reach 15 seats, one more than in 2022. Manuel Gavira's party would achieve 13.8% of the votes, consolidating its presence but without the big leap that some polls anticipated months ago.

With this result, Vox would remain the third force, but would be left without the real capacity to condition the Executive if Moreno maintains the absolute majority.

For Andalusia and Adelante Andalucía advance

The alternative left would improve its records. Por Andalucía would rise to 6 seats with 8.1% of the votes, while Adelante Andalucía would reach 4 deputies and 6.5%. José Ignacio García once again stands out for his strong personal appeal: he is the second best-rated leader in all of Andalusia, only behind Juanma Moreno.

The right maintains a crushing advantage over the left

The sum of PP and Vox would reach 71 seats, compared to the 38 of the bloc formed by PSOE, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía.

In other words, the right and the far-right would surpass the left by 33 deputies, one of the largest differences recorded since the beginning of autonomy.

The Andalusian Government obtains a better rating than Sánchez's Executive

The management of the Junta de Andalucía receives a notably higher rating than that of the central Government. 34% of those surveyed rate the Andalusian Executive negatively, compared to 53.5% who give the Government of Pedro Sánchez a failing grade.

Even among socialist voters, almost half consider that Andalusia is today the same or better than four years ago.

Inflation, healthcare, and housing dominate concerns

The main problems for Andalusians are inflation and the cost of living, public healthcare, unemployment, and housing. These issues are central to the campaign and explain a large part of the debate between candidates. With this data, Juanma Moreno faces the final stretch in the most favorable position of the entire campaign. Absolute majority remains open, but the central scenario from 40dB confirms that the PP continues to dominate clearly, the PSOE fails to regain ground, and Vox grows without altering the balance of power.

If the ballot boxes confirm this picture on May 17, Andalusia will consolidate Moreno's political leadership and leave María Jesús Montero facing a historic low for the PSOE in her old stronghold.

Source: 40Db for Prisa, published on 11/05/2026