Latest poll in Andalusia: the CIS grants the absolute majority to the PP
The Andalusian elections of May 17 arrive with the Popular Party positioned as the leading force in the polls and with an absolute majority as the great political frontier of the campaign. The Parliament of Andalusia has 109 seats, so the decisive barrier is 55 deputies.
The latest CIS study places the PP in the lead with 43.6% of the votes, ahead of the PSOE, which reaches 25.8%. Vox appears as the third force, with 10.3%, while Adelante Andalucía is at 8.5% and Por Andalucía at 6.9%. The key is not only who wins, but whether Juanma Moreno manages to retain a sufficient majority to govern without depending on Vox.
The poll average: PP ahead, PSOE far behind, and Vox as the third force
The average of published polls allows us to observe the underlying evolution of the Andalusian political scene beyond a specific survey. The trend keeps the PP as the dominant force in the community, with a wide advantage over the PSOE, which is trying to regain ground after the strong setback suffered in the last regional elections.
Vox consolidates itself as the third force in most estimates, although its role will depend on whether the PP achieves an absolute majority or not. Behind, the space to the left of the PSOE appears divided between Adelante Andalucía and Por Andalucía, a fragmentation that could be decisive in the final distribution of seats.
The moving average of the last five polls: the real campaign trend
The moving average of the last five polls allows for smoothing out the abrupt changes of each survey and observing the real campaign trend with greater clarity. This type of measurement helps to distinguish between one-off movements and more consistent shifts in voting intention.
In the final stretch towards the polls, this evolution shows whether the PP maintains a sufficient position to aspire to an absolute majority, whether the PSOE manages to close the gap, and whether Vox grows, stagnates, or loses strength as a key player for governability. It also allows us to measure whether the alternative left arrives with the capacity for representation or if it is penalized by the division of votes.
Andalusia 2026 Survey Searcher: consult all published polls
In this search engine, all electoral surveys used to create the vote estimation and evolution graphs of the main parties in Andalusia can be consulted. The tool allows comparing the published polls for the Andalusian elections of 2026, identifying trends between studies, and following the evolution of PP, PSOE, Vox, Adelante Andalucía, and Por Andalucía in the final stretch towards the polls.
Consult all the graphs, maps, and historical evolution of the vote in Andalusia
In addition to the latest vote estimate, Demócrata offers a complete special on the Andalusian elections of 2026 with all the polls, the historical evolution of the vote, the distribution of seats by party, the ideological blocs, participation, and the municipal map of the last regional elections.
The 2022 regional elections marked a profound change in the Andalusian political map. Juanma Moreno achieved a historic absolute majority for the PP. Since then, the big question is whether that result was an exception linked to Moreno's personal leadership and the PSOE's wear and tear, or if Andalusia has entered a new, more stable political era, with the PP as the central party of the regional system.