Survey Andalusian elections: Almería and the undecided will decide Moreno's absolute majority while Montero sinks and Vox resurges, according to GESOP

The poll, **elaborated between April 29 and May 6 from 802 interviews, confirms that the Andalusian electoral scenario continues to be dominated by the Popular Party,** although with a much narrower margin than that obtained by Moreno in 2022.

The PP loses strength compared to 2022, but remains in a position to govern alone

The People's Party would obtain 40.9% of the votes and between 52 and 55 seats. This represents a drop of 1.7 points compared to the 43.1% achieved in 2022 and the possible loss of up to six deputies from the 58 it currently has in the Andalusian Parliament.

Despite that wear and tear, Moreno maintains his position as the clear favorite intact and has regained ground in recent months. In February, GESOP itself placed him clearly below the absolute majority. Since then, the PP has risen 2.4 points and once again has real options to govern without depending on anyone.

Vox consolidates and could reach up to 20 seats

Vox would be the big beneficiary of the fragmentation of the conservative vote. Manuel Gavira's party would reach 16.3% of the votes and a range of 17 to 20 deputies.

Compared to 2022, it would rise almost three points and could gain between three and six seats. Although it has fallen compared to the February poll, it remains well above its previous result and continues to be a force with sufficient capacity to influence the future Andalusian government if the PP falls short of an absolute majority.

Montero does not manage to recover and the PSOE falls to new lows

The Andalusian PSOE would obtain 20.5% of the vote and between 24 and 27 seats. The result would leave María Jesús Montero far below the 30 deputies achieved by Juan Espadas in 2022.

The data confirms that Montero's candidacy has not managed to mobilize the socialist electorate nor reverse the structural loss of support for the PSOE in the community.

The alternative left grows and gains weight in Parliament

Por Andalucía experiences a clear recovery and would reach 8.9% of the vote and between 6 and 8 seats, improving its current representation.

Adelante Andalucía also rises strongly and would obtain 7% of the votes and between 4 and 6 deputies, doubling or even tripling its current parliamentary presence.

The weakness of the PSOE thus feeds the two forces to its left, although the growth of the progressive bloc remains insufficient to challenge the PP's leadership.

Almería, the province where Vox threatens the PP

One of the most striking pieces of data from the study is the provincial behavior. The PP would be the leading force in seven of the eight Andalusian provinces, but in Almería Vox would place itself ahead, confirming that this province has become the main electoral bastion of Santiago Abascal's party in Andalusia.

A 15.5% of undecided keeps the last week open

Seven days before the elections, 15.5% of the electorate remains undecided. The final mobilization will be decisive in a campaign where a few thousand votes can decide whether Juanma Moreno revalidates the absolute majority or needs the support of Vox to continue in San Telmo.

Comparison with 2022: less PP strength and more Vox weight

The poll reflects a shift in balance within the right-wing bloc. The PP remains hegemonic, but loses some of the support that allowed it to govern comfortably in 2022. Vox, on the contrary, grows clearly and consolidates itself as a much more relevant force than four years ago.

On the left, the PSOE continues to decline, while Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía gain ground, although without altering the structural advantage of the conservative bloc.

Source: GESOP for El Periódico, published on 05/10/2026