The PP wins, but no longer dominates as in 2022. The Popular Party is now between 53 and 56 seats, below the 58 it achieved in June 2022, and falls slightly in votes to 42.4% (–0.7 points). Although Moreno continues to lead and holds the absolute majority, he enters a zone of real risk, because the absolute majority is 55 and the margin is minimal.
The key change compared to April: it loses steam in the final stretch: just three weeks ago (April 14), the CENTRA placed the PP between 54 and 57 seats, now it drops a notch, losing the ceiling and dangerously approaching the lower limit. This breaks the narrative of stability and opens a more competitive scenario than it seemed.
Vox soars and becomes decisive
The big move in the poll is Vox.
It rises to:
- 14.4% of the vote (+0.9 compared to 2022)
- 17–19 seats (compared to 14 in 2022)
It is his best position in this cycle and he seems to become a decisive player in the upper band, which will condition the outcome.
The PSOE enters deeper lows than in April
María Jesús Montero not only does not recover but worsens and approaches the abyss of possibly losing 20%. In this CENTRAL poll, she scores 20.1% of the vote (-4 points compared to 2022), which would leave the PSOE with 25-27 seats (compared to 30 in 2022), being also the worst scenario in the entire series.
And furthermore, there is an important nuance compared to the previous CENTRA. If in April there was stagnation, now there is a clear and consolidated fall.
The alternative left grows… but changes nothing
For Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía improve, but do not alter the balance:
- For Andalusia: 4–7 seats (stable)
- Forward Andalusia: rises to 5 deputies (from 2 in 2022)
That is to say, there is a considerable rise of the left and, although it is not competitive, it will manage to scratch a better result than in 2022, something surprising in a scenario in which the PSOE is absorbing votes to its left.
The provincial map tightens on the PP and PSOE
The most precise data -and most dangerous for the PP and Moreno Bonilla's people- is in the provinces:
Málaga: 8–9 seats
Sevilla: 9
Cádiz: 7
Córdoba and Jaén: tighter areas
Vote estimation by provinces in Andalusia according to the latest CENTRA barometer.
That is to say, the absolute will be decided by remainders in key provinces, the so-called "restillos".
Direct comparison with 2022: less PP, more Vox, weaker PSOE
The evolution is surgical:
- PP: slightly down (–0.7)
- PSOE: plummets (–4)
- Vox: up (+0.9)
- Adelante: grows strongly (+2.3)
Furthermore, abstention is low, but it remains decisive, standing at around 40.1%, slightly below 2022.
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 53-56 | 42.4 |
| PSOE | 25-27 | 20.1 |
| VOX | 17-19 | 14.4 |
| Por Andalucía | 4-7 | 7.9 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 5 | 6.9 |