Survey Andalusian elections: Moreno risks absolute majority in Córdoba and Granada, debacle for Montero and Adelante surpasses Por Andalucía, according to GAD3

The study, prepared between April 30 and May 7 from 1,142 interviews, confirms a very tight scenario: the PP remains clearly in the lead, María Jesús Montero's PSOE continues at historically low levels and Vox regains momentum, which once again makes it decisive if Moreno falls short of an absolute majority.

The PP maintains the lead, but loses part of the 2022 advantage

The People's Party would obtain 42.3% of the votes and between 54 and 56 seats. The result represents a slight drop compared to the 43.1% and the 58 deputies achieved by Moreno in 2022, although it continues to place the Andalusian president as the great favorite to continue in San Telmo.

The key will be in the provincial results. Córdoba could cause the PP to lose one of its seats, while Granada offers the possibility of compensating for that setback with an additional deputy. In such a tight Parliament, a few thousand votes will decide whether Moreno governs alone or needs the support of Vox. Compared to the previous GAD3, from April 19, the PP loses 1.3 points in direct voting intention.

Montero does not recover and the PSOE remains at historic lows

The Andalusian PSOE would be placed at 21.7% of the vote and between 26 and 28 seats. The figure again leaves María Jesús Montero far below the 30 deputies obtained by Juan Espadas in 2022.

Far from activating the electorate, the socialist candidate continues to fail to close the gap with the PP and maintains the PSOE in a position of structural weakness in its former great territorial stronghold. The trend, moreover, is alarming with respect to previous polls by the same pollster, going from 23.8% to 23.5% in April and to this 21.7%, an absolute minimum for Andalusian socialists.

Vox regains ground and could reach up to 17 seats

Vox would rise to 14.6% of the vote and obtain between 15 and 17 deputies, improving its 2022 result and consolidating its role as a determining player in the Andalusian Parliament. Vox is also clearly on the rise: in a single month, it has gained more than one point in this same poll, its previous mark being 13.3% in the previous GAD3

Manuel Gavira's party especially reinforces its expectations in Jaén, Córdoba, and Málaga, and would again be essential if the PP does not overcome the 55-seat threshold.

Adelante Andalucía overtakes Por Andalucía

The main novelty of the poll appears on the alternative left. Adelante Andalucía, led by José Ignacio García, would obtain 7.9% of the vote and up to 6 seats, tripling its current representation.

For Andalusia, with Antonio Maíllo at the helm, would remain at 7.8% and repeat with 5 deputies.

The difference is minimal in percentage, but the greater territorial efficiency of Adelante's vote would allow it to surpass the coalition of IU, Podemos, and Sumar for the first time.

An open ending with the absolute majority up in the air

One week before the May 17 elections, the GAD3 poll confirms that Juanma Moreno remains the clear favorite, but that his absolute majority hangs by a few votes.

The PP dominates the Andalusian scene, the PSOE fails to recover and Vox maintains enough strength to once again become the arbiter of governability. The campaigns, according to this pollster, would have only helped Vox and the alternative left, while the PP and especially the PSOE have lost expectations. Andalusia thus faces a final stretch with one great unknown: whether Moreno will be able to govern alone or if he will once again depend on Vox.

Source: GAD3 for Vocento, published on 11/05/2026