Moreno is worth more than the PP: 6 points of advantage in popularity. The most revealing data is this: Juanma Moreno has a popularity of 48.7%, six points above the estimated vote for the PP (43.1%).
He not only retains his electorate, but also attracts borrowed votes from other parties. This effect explains why the PP is moving in absolute majority figures: Moreno has built his own brand that transcends the acronyms. It is no coincidence that his campaign is centered on his name, with the PP logo in the background.
The inverse case: Montero is worth less than the PSOE
On the opposite side is María Jesús Montero. Her popularity stands at 19.3%, four points below the PSOE vote (23.5%).
In other words, part of the socialist electorate votes PSOE but does not connect with their candidate. This reflects a structural problem: Montero does not mobilize and the PSOE depends on reactivating more than 500,000 voters who stayed home in 2022.
The Board approves even among socialist voters
The most devastating data is not in the voting intention, but in the assessment of management. According to Commentia for Joly, the Junta obtains an average grade of 5.5, 65% of Andalusians approve of its management and only 31% disapprove, with a truly decisive figure: 53% of PSOE voters approve of Moreno's Government.
This breaks the classic framework of blocs: it means that the PP is not only winning on the right and is penetrating the moderate left-wing electorate.
Cross-cutting leadership that explains the electoral advantage
Moreno's profile is consolidated on three axes:
- High voter loyalty
- Ability to attract PSOE voters
- Good approval rating even after seven years in government
Furthermore, it connects especially with young and old, the two segments that most value the Andalusian Executive.
Vox and the left, no leadership effect
The rest of the candidates remain behind their own parties:
- Manuel Gavira (Vox) is slightly below his mark.
- Antonio Maíllo (Por Andalucía), despite being a political benchmark for the left, is two points below
- Only José Ignacio García (Adelante Andalucía) improves on his mark, as we have already seen from his success on social media.
The pacts: PP-Vox wins, but the desire for stability grows
In case there is no absolute majority:
- 38% prefer PP-Vox pact
- 27% bet on the left
- 14% spontaneously mention a PP-PSOE agreement
This last point is key: it reflects a demand for stability that directly favors Moreno and leaves the conclusion that the election is not PP vs PSOE, it is Moreno against the rest and from there to have an absolute majority within reach. The answer, in a few days.