The SocioMétrica poll thus outlines an apparently solid scenario, but with a decisive vulnerability in the final stretch of the campaign.
The PP remains strong, but depends on mobilization
The Popular Party would achieve 43.1% of the vote and would repeat the 58 seats it already obtained in 2022, consolidating its hegemony in Andalusia.
In addition, Moreno has an 87% probability of revalidating the absolute majority, supported by high voter loyalty (82%) and his ability to attract new voters.
The PP exceeds 40% in all provinces and stands out especially in Málaga (46.3%), Jaén (46.2%) and Córdoba (43.8%).
However, the key data is not in the global strength, but in the territorial fragility.
Three provinces can decide the absolute majority
The survey indicates that the final result will be decided by a handful of votes in Málaga, Córdoba, and Huelva. In these constituencies, the distribution of seats is particularly tight, and any demobilization of the popular electorate could cause Moreno to lose the deputies he needs to govern alone.
This is the real risk: not losing the elections, but losing the absolute majority.
The PSOE sinks to historic lows with Montero
The poll confirms the worst-case scenario for the Andalusian PSOE. María Jesús Montero would obtain 23.5% of the vote and barely 27 seats, falling below Juan Espadas' result in 2022 (30 deputies). The problem is not only the decline, but the lack of mobilization: the PSOE only retains 63% of its voters and loses support on all fronts.
Part of its electorate is fleeing to the PP (7.8%) and to Vox (3.8%), while another relevant segment migrates towards Por Andalucía (8%).
Vox stagnates and loses influence
Vox would barely grow by one seat, up to 15 deputies, with 13.6% of the vote. The party confirms its slowdown in Andalusia and remains far from the growth registered in other communities.
Its best result is concentrated in Almería (19.2%), but it does not manage to alter the global balance of Parliament.
The alternative left grows, but does not change the bloc
Por Andalucía improves to 7 seats and 8.4% of the vote, benefiting from the reunification of the space with Podemos. Adelante Andalucía, on the other hand, stagnates with 2 seats and 5.2%.
Together, the left remains fragmented and without real capacity to dispute power with the PP.
A clear scenario with a hidden risk
Moreno has the absolute majority in hand, but not secured. Everything depends on mobilization in the final days, especially in provinces where a few thousand votes can decide several seats. Both the PSOE, which must overcome the poll data, and the PP, which is close to an absolute majority, are playing their hand in the final stretch of the campaign.
Sociométrica for ElEspañol, published on 05/03/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 58 | 43,1 |
| PSOE | 27 | 23,5 |
| VOX | 15 | 13,6 |
| Por Andalucía | 7 | 8,4 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 2 | 5,2 |