Survey Andalusian elections: The absolute majority 'dances' for Moreno, Montero continues to decline and Adelante threatens Por Andalucía, according to Target Point

Juanma Moreno will arrive on May 17 with an absolute majority within reach, but still pending a handful of votes in several provinces. The latest poll by Target Point for El Debate places the Andalusian PP between 54 and 56 seats, leaving the president of the Junta between repeating the government alone or depending on Vox to remain in San Telmo.

The poll confirms that the Popular Party continues to clearly dominate the Andalusian political scene, while María Jesús Montero's PSOE returns to historically low levels and Vox, although growing, does not achieve the momentum it expected at the start of the campaign.

Moreno moves between 54 and 56 seats and keeps the absolute within reach

According to the survey, the PP would obtain 42.6% of the votes, practically the same result as it achieved in 2022 (43.1%). In seats, Juanma Moreno would be between 54 and 56 deputies, with the absolute majority set at 55. This means he could be one seat short of governing alone or narrowly exceed the threshold.

The Andalusian president would lose part of the margin achieved four years ago, when he reached 58 deputies, but would continue to be by far the dominant force in Andalusia.

The PSOE hits historic lows again

The poll draws a very adverse scenario for María Jesús Montero, who would obtain between 26 and 28 seats. In the worst-case scenario, the PSOE would fall to 26 deputies, which would be its worst result in history in Andalusia. Even in the high range, with 28, it would remain clearly below the 30 seats obtained by Juan Espadas in 2022.

The candidacy of the former vice president fails to win back the socialist electorate in the community that for decades was the main bastion of the PSOE.

Vox grows, but remains far from conditioning the Government

Vox would improve its 2022 results and go from 14 to between 15 and 17 seats. Manuel Gavira's party would reach 14.8% of the votes, consolidating its third position, but without the growth it achieved in other communities such as Extremadura or Aragon. If Moreno reaches 55 deputies, Vox will once again be left out of any decisive role in Andalusian governance.

Adelante Andalucía threatens Por Andalucía

The big novelty in the alternative left is the strong advance of Adelante Andalucía. The formation of José Ignacio García would rise from 4.6% to 7.5% and could obtain between 5 and 6 seats, which would even allow it to surpass Por Andalucía. The coalition led by Antonio Maíllo would drop to 7.1% and would move between 4 and 5 deputies.

The last seat will decide the Andalusian political future

Six days before the elections, Juanma Moreno's absolute majority remains open. The PP maintains a very wide advantage over the PSOE, Vox consolidates without taking off and the alternative left gains weight, but without altering the general balance. Everything indicates that the outcome will depend on the distribution of the last seats in several provinces and the final mobilization of the electorate.

Source: Target Point for El Debate, published on 11/05/2026