The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) will publish this Friday, April 24, its pre-election study on the Andalusian elections of next May 17. The advance of results will be disseminated from 12:30 hours on its website and will become one of the key polls in the final stretch before the campaign.
A clear precedent: the CIS did not see an absolute majority in 2022
The publication arrives with a relevant background. In the Andalusian elections of 2022, the CIS did not anticipate the absolute majority that Juanma Moreno's PP finally achieved.
In that poll, the agency placed the PP between 47 and 49 seats, far below the 58 deputies it obtained at the polls.
Mismatches also in the rest of the parties
The CIS estimates in 2022 also overestimated other formations.
- The PSOE was projected between 32 and 36 seats, but ended with 30
- Vox appeared between 17 and 21 deputies, compared to the 14 actual ones
- Por Andalucía was estimated at up to 10 seats and was left with 5
- Only Adelante Andalucía moved in figures close to the forecasts.
Expectation before the new poll in an open scenario
The new study arrives in a different context, with a very tight electoral scenario around the PP's absolute majority. The polls known so far place Juanma Moreno close to or slightly above 55 seats, while the PSOE remains at low levels and Vox shows signs of stagnation.
A key piece of data to measure the final stretch of the campaign
The CIS poll will be one of the last major indicators before the official start of the campaign. Its publication will allow us to compare whether the agency maintains similar patterns to previous elections or adjusts its forecasts to the current evolution of the Andalusian electorate.