The PP would place itself as the most voted force in Andalusian elections, with a range of between 52 and 55 seats and the possibility of reaching the absolute majority set at 55 deputies, with the PSOE in second place (24-27) and Vox in third position (17-20), according to a survey by "El Periódico".
The poll, released this Sunday by Europa Press, indicates that Por Andalucía would come in fourth place, with between 6 and 8 parliamentarians, while Adelante Andalucía would move between 4 and 6 seats.
In the vote estimate, the PP also leads the ranking with 40.9%, followed by the PSOE (20.5%), Vox (16.3%), Por Andalucía (8.9%), Adelante Andalucía (7%), and Se Acabó la Fiesta (2.7%).
The survey was conducted by Gesop based on 802 interviews with adults of voting age in Andalusia, carried out between April 29 and May 6, 2026, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
If these data are compared with the results of the 2022 regional elections, the PP would cede between 3 and 6 seats and the PSOE would lose a similar figure, while Vox would add between 3 and 6 deputies, Por Andalucía would expand its presence with between one and 3 additional representatives and Adelante Andalucía would achieve between 2 and 4 more seats than in 2022.
By provinces, the PP wins in direct voting intention in all except Almería, where it falls to third place behind the PSOE and Vox, which leads the vote preference in this constituency.
Best and Worst Rated Candidates
The opinion poll also includes an assessment of the lead candidates. The president of the Junta and aspirant for re-election for the PP, Juanma Moreno, is the best-rated leader, with an average score of 5.4, followed by the candidate for Adelante Andalucía, José Ignacio García, who obtains a 5.2.
On the opposite end, the candidate with the worst rating is the PSOE candidate, María Jesús Montero, with a 3.5. The leader of Por Andalucía, Antonio Maíllo, reaches a 4.9 and the Vox aspirant, Manuel Gavira, is at 4.2.
In line with these assessments, Moreno appears as the favorite of 39.2% of respondents to become the next Andalusian president, followed by Montero (18.6%), Maíllo (6.3%), García (4.7%), and Gavira (4.2%).
Vote loyalty and transfers between parties
Regarding fidelity with respect to previous elections, PP and Vox present similar levels, around 70%, although Vox registers a flight of support towards the PP of 14.6%, while the transfer in the opposite direction, from the PP towards Vox, stands at 10.6%.
In the case of the PSOE, voter loyalty drops to 55.4%. Among those who previously supported it, 8.1% would now opt for the PP, 6.8% would choose Adelante Andalucía, and 5.7% would lean towards Vox.