The new survey from SocioMétrica for El Español, compared to the poll from July 5, raises the PP from 147 to 149 seats and keeps the PSOE at 103, although the socialists rise from 25% to 26% of the vote. Vox drops from 58 to 57 deputies and Sumar falls from eight to seven, so PP and Vox go from 205 to 206 seats, while the current coalition Government is reduced to 110.
The Ceuta crisis does not cause a complete turnaround in the SocioMétrica survey, but it does leave a politically clear movement: the PP is the one that improves compared to the previous poll. Feijóo goes from 147 to 149 seats and rises from 33.6% to 33.8% of the vote. The variation is small in percentage, but relevant in seats, because it places the PP just one deputy away from the symbolic barrier of 150.
The PSOE does not lose more deputies compared to July. It remains at 103 seats and improves one point in vote, from 25% to 26%. This data allows us to say that Sánchez contains his electoral floor, but does not recompose the majority: the Government block worsens because Sumar drops from eight to seven deputies. The PSOE-Sumar coalition thus goes from 111 to 110 seats.
Vox also does not come out strengthened in this wave. The party of Santiago Abascal drops from 58 to 57 deputies, although it rises slightly from 16.9% to 17% of the vote. The majority of the right, therefore, does not grow due to a new leap from Vox, but due to the advance of the PP. The sum PP+Vox goes from 205 to 206 seats; with UPN, it would reach 207
The PP appears as the clear winner of hypothetical general elections
SocioMétrica attributes to Feijóo 33.8% of the votes and 149 deputies. It is an increase of two seats compared to the previous poll and leaves the party at the gates of the symbolic barrier of 150. The comparison with the PSOE is the political key. The popular would lead the socialists by 7.8 points and by 46 seats.
The PP would not only be the first force, but would also have more deputies than all the parties that supported Sánchez's investiture, which would sum up to 142 representatives.
The coalition Government falls to 110 seats
The hardest data for Moncloa is in the sum of PSOE and Sumar. The socialists would remain at 103 seats and Sumar at seven. Together they would only reach 110 deputies.
This result greatly distances any possibility of re-editing a Government majority like that of 2023. The coalition would lose weight from both sides: the PSOE remains above 100 seats, but far from the 121 it obtained on 23J; and Sumar collapses from the 31 deputies achieved then by the joint candidacy that also included Podemos.
The weakness is not limited to the Executive. The combination of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would only sum up to 34.6% of the vote, a level that El Español compares to the worst historical moments of the state left.
PP and Vox would have 206 deputies
The alternative majority appears very consolidated. The PP would obtain 149 seats and Vox 57. Together they would reach 206 deputies, 30 above the absolute majority. The result would be even broader if UPN is included, bringing the block to 207.
Vox would slightly slow down compared to the previous poll, losing one seat, but would still be well above its result from 2023. The party of Santiago Abascal would obtain 17% and 57 deputies, compared to 12.4% and 33 seats achieved in the last general elections.
The reading is clear: although Vox may have reached its peak in this series, its growth since 23J is still sufficient to give Feijóo a comfortable absolute majority.
The investiture block falls below the PP
The survey leaves another impactful data: all the parties that supported Sánchez's investiture would sum up to 142 seats. This figure falls below the 149 deputies that the PP would obtain by itself.
This point summarizes the change in parliamentary arithmetic. In 2023, Sánchez managed to articulate a majority with the support of Sumar, ERC, Junts, EH Bildu, PNV, BNG and other partners. In the estimation of SocioMétrica, that block would no longer reach a competitive position against the sum of PP and Vox.
The difference would not only be in the fall of the PSOE. Also in the loss of strength of Sumar and in the limited capacity of nationalist and independentist parties to compensate for that setback.
Sumar drops to seven seats and Podemos to two
Sumar appears as one of the weakest points of the progressive space. The formation would remain at 5.9% of the votes and seven seats, one less than in the previous poll from July. The setback is very strong compared to the result of 2023, when the joint candidacy of Sumar achieved 31 deputies.
We Can, for its part, would obtain 2.7% and two seats. Together they would total nine deputies. The fragmentation of the space to the left of the PSOE would again punish its conversion of votes into seats, especially in small and medium provinces.
The PSOE slows part of its fall by absorbing votes from Sumar
The PSOE manages to contain its decline compared to other recent polls, but it does so largely at the expense of Sumar. The matrix of vote transfers published by El Español indicates that the socialists would capture almost 450,000 former voters of Sumar.
This transfer helps Sánchez to remain at 103 seats, but does not recompose the overall progressive bloc. What the PSOE gains, its government partner loses in part. The consequence is a more concentrated state left around the PSOE, but with less total strength.
The PP attracts 540,000 former socialist voters
The survey also reflects a significant movement between blocs. The PP would manage to attract 540,000 former voters of the PSOE. In addition, it would mobilize 1.2 million voters who abstained in the general elections of 2023.
Vox would also capture votes from abstention: 963,000 former abstainers would now choose Abascal's party, according to SocioMétrica.
These data explain why the majority of the PP and Vox appears so large. It is not only based on the loyalty of its voters from 2023, but also on the ability to capture support from the PSOE and to mobilize voters who did not go to vote.
The nationalists and independents would total 31 seats
The bloc of nationalist and independent parties would reach 31 seats, according to the survey. ERC would rise to eight deputies and take one from Junts, which would drop to six. In Euskadi, EH Bildu would maintain its lead with seven seats, one more than the PNV.
The BNG would maintain its representation and Adelante Andalucía would enter with one deputy, with 1% of the vote. The nationalist sum would still have parliamentary weight, but in this scenario it would not be enough to sustain a investiture majority led by Sánchez.
Feijóo surpasses Sánchez in presidential preference
The survey also offers leadership data. Feijóo appears ahead of Sánchez in preference to occupy the Presidency of the Government. 22.9% of those surveyed want the leader of the PP to reach La Moncloa, compared to 19.5% who prefer Sánchez. They are followed by Santiago Abascal, with 11.9%, and Yolanda Díaz, with 8.3%.
The most striking fact is that 32.7% respond that they do not want any of them to be president, which reflects a high level of disaffection towards the main national leaders.
When the election is reduced to the leaders of the two major parties, Feijóo also prevails: 39.7% against Sánchez's 35.8%.
45% believe that Feijóo will be the next president
The expectation of victory also favors the leader of the PP. 44.8% of Spaniards believe that Feijóo will be the next president of the Government after the general elections. 30.3% bet on Sánchez's continuity.
This data matters because it not only measures political preference but also perception of the electoral climate. A relevant part of the electorate seems to assume that the political cycle has shifted towards a victory for the PP.
This expectation may influence the mobilization of voters, both among those seeking alternation and those wanting to avoid it.
All leaders fail
In leader evaluation, all national leaders fail. Feijóo and Yolanda Díaz top the list with an average score of 3.3. Abascal appears with a 2.9 and Sánchez falls to 2.8.
The position of the president of the Government is especially delicate because he is behind Abascal in overall evaluation. Among his own voters, Sánchez receives a 6.2. It is a passing grade, but lower than that received by other leaders within their electorates: Vox voters give Abascal a 9.1; Sumar voters rate Yolanda Díaz with an 8; and PP voters award Feijóo a 7.2.
The Ceuta crisis enters the electoral reading
The survey is published after the Ceuta crisis and places that episode as one of the factors marking the new political climate. The management of the crisis has opened several fronts: border security, relationship with Morocco, role of the CNI, pressure on the Interior Ministry, and internal debate within the Government partners.
The poll does not allow us to assert on its own that Ceuta is the only cause of the electoral changes. But it does measure a snapshot taken in the full impact of that crisis and with the PP widening its lead over the PSOE.
| Party | Estimated vote | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 33.8% | 149 |
| PSOE | 26% | 103 |
| Vox | 17% | 57 |
| Sumar | 5.9% | 7 |
| Podemos | 2.7% | 2 |