The migration crisis in Ceuta has opened a new front of geopolitical debate. In recent hours, El Mundo has echoed information and analysis from the Chinese environment that points to a supposed indirect involvement of Israel in Morocco's strategy towards Spain. The thesis is based on a certain fact - the growing alliance between Rabat and Israel - but takes an additional leap by suggesting that this relationship could be behind the migratory pressure exerted on Ceuta.
However, that last extreme is not supported by public evidence nor by official information known to date.
What is indeed accredited
Since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Morocco and Israel have notably tightened their cooperation in defense, intelligence, cybersecurity, and military technology. Israel has become one of the main suppliers of surveillance systems, drones, and intelligence capabilities for the Moroccan Armed Forces.
This strategic rapprochement is a well-documented fact and is part of the new balance of power in North Africa.
The leap that some analyses make
The hypothesis circulated from certain Chinese circles —and picked up by El Mundo— holds that this alliance could translate into a greater capacity for geopolitical pressure on Spain, especially after the Spanish government's rapprochement with Beijing and the deterioration of its relations with some Western partners.
However, between that hypothesis and the assertion that Israel participated or promoted the migratory avalanche there is a evidentiary void.
So far:
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there is no official investigation attributing a role to Israel in the crisis;
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nor the Spanish government;
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nor the European Union;
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nor Western intelligence services have publicly pointed out that possibility.
Morocco remains the central actor
What is indeed part of the political and academic debate for years is the use of migration as a diplomatic pressure instrument by Morocco.
The Ceuta crisis of 2021 was already interpreted by numerous European institutions as an episode in which Rabat deliberately relaxed border controls in a context of bilateral tension. That precedent explains why much of the current analyses again focus on Morocco as the main actor of the crisis.
In parallel, the CNI has given credibility to new campaigns spread on social media to promote another massive entry in Ceuta, which points to the role of disinformation and digital mobilization as relevant factors in the crisis.