The latest voting intention polls conducted in France place the leader of the National Rally, Marine Le Pen, as the best-positioned candidate to win the presidential elections if they were held this Sunday, July 12, despite the embezzlement conviction against her.
According to these opinion polls, and once her intention to run in the April 2027 elections has been publicly confirmed, Le Pen would obtain between 34% and 36% of the votes, according to data published by the newspaper "Les Échos".
"Her conviction had no negative impact. On the contrary, the announcement of her candidacy has had a positive effect and that has been the relevant thing," explained Bruno Jeanbard, vice president of OpinionWay, in statements to the newspaper "Les Échos". "Marine Le Pen is at a level comparable to Jordan Bardella at his best," he added.
The results of these surveys also indicate that only a small number of candidates would have real options to contest the second place in the first round of the presidential elections: Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and current mayor of Le Havre, would reach 22% of the votes if he were the sole representative of the centrist space in the first round, leaving another former head of government, Gabriel Attal, out of the race. In the scenario where both compete, Philippe (18%) would clearly beat Attal (7%). However, if Gabriel Attal were to run as the sole centrist candidate, he would achieve 16% of the support and, according to this poll, could reach the second round, slightly ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The leader of La France Insoumise appears as the candidate with the greatest appeal on the left, ahead of Raphaël Glucksmann (between 9% and 10% support), Marine Tondelier (5%), and Fabien Roussel (2%). Projections give Mélenchon between 13% and 15% of the votes, a range that would prevent him from qualifying for the second round, regardless of which centrist candidate or candidates he faces.