Can the Venezuelan earthquake repeat itself? Why did it occur and how long had it been since an earthquake of this magnitude?
The two strong earthquakes registered in northern Venezuela have once again focused attention on one of the areas with the highest seismic activity in the Caribbean. The sequence, consisting of two earthquakes of great magnitude separated by just a few seconds, has raised numerous questions: Can another earthquake occur again?, Why did it happen?, Is it usual for two earthquakes to occur so close together? and Had it been a long time since the country had registered a similar event?
According to the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research (Funvisis) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Venezuela will register earthquakes again in the future, but that does not mean that another major earthquake will occur imminently. The country is located on the boundary between the Caribbean plate and the South American plate, one of the areas with the highest seismic activity on the continent. This location makes it inevitable that earthquakes will continue to occur, although science cannot determine when or with what intensity the next one will happen.
What experts consider very probable is that, after an earthquake of great magnitude like the one registered this week, numerous aftershocks will occur during the following days or weeks. Most will be of lesser intensity, although some may be felt strongly and even cause new damage to structures that have already been weakened.
Scientific organizations insist that there is no method for predicting an earthquake. Although seismic networks allow for real-time detection of activity and monitoring of fault evolution, it is not currently possible to know if another major earthquake will occur, when it will happen, or what its magnitude will be.
Seismic Doubleheader
The explanation for these seismic displacements lies in Venezuela's own geology. The country is located on the boundary between the Caribbean plate and the South American plate, two enormous blocks of the Earth's crust that are constantly moving. This movement accumulates tension for years or even decades until the rock can no longer withstand it and suddenly releases all that energy, resulting in an earthquake.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), northern Venezuela is part of one of the most seismically active areas in the Caribbean due to the permanent contact between both tectonic plates, a process that generates thousands of small movements each year and, much less frequently, large-magnitude earthquakes.
On this occasion, specialists from the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research (Funvisis) explain, along with geologists consulted by various media, it was not a main earthquake followed by a large aftershock, but a phenomenon known as a seismic doublet. This means that two segments of the same geological structure, or two very close faults, released accumulated energy almost simultaneously, causing two main earthquakes separated by only a few seconds.
Can another earthquake happen again?
The answer is yes, although science still cannot predict when it will occur.
According to Funvisis and the USGS, after a large-magnitude earthquake, it is completely normal for numerous aftershocks to be recorded. Some can be intense enough to be clearly felt and even cause new damage to buildings that have already been weakened by the main quake.
Experts explain that these aftershocks can last for days, weeks, or even months, although it is common for both their frequency and intensity to progressively decrease as the fault releases the remaining energy.
What science still cannot do is announce when another major earthquake will occur. According to the National Geographic Institute (IGN) of Spain, monitoring systems do allow for real-time detection of seismic activity and identification of higher-risk areas, but there is no technology capable of predicting the date, time, or exact location of a future earthquake.
How long had it been since an earthquake of this magnitude occurred?
Although Venezuela regularly experiences seismic activity, most earthquakes are of low intensity and are barely perceived by the population.
According to historical records compiled by Funvisis and the USGS, large-magnitude earthquakes are much less frequent and, when they occur, they usually become some of the most significant seismic events of each generation.
Among the most remembered precedents is the earthquake that affected Caracas in 1967, considered one of the most devastating in the country's recent history. Since then, other significant tremors have occurred in different Venezuelan regions, although specialists agree that an episode like the one recorded this week is among the most significant in recent decades.
Why does Venezuela have such seismic risk?
The explanation is again underground. According to the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research, the north of the country is crossed by several active faults associated with the boundary between the Caribbean plate and the South American plate. This permanent movement makes Venezuela one of the countries with the highest seismic activity in America, although this does not mean that a major earthquake will occur immediately.
Geologists insist that earthquakes are part of the planet's natural behavior and that the best way to reduce their consequences is not to try to predict them, but to build resistant buildings, improve early warning systems, and prepare the population to know how to act when an emergency occurs.
What can happen now?
After an episode of these characteristics, the priority is to monitor the evolution of seismic activity.
According to the USGS and Funvisis, during the next few days, aftershocks are likely to continue to be recorded, although the vast majority will be of lower magnitude than the main earthquakes.
Therefore, authorities recommend following only the information disseminated by official bodies, avoiding access to buildings that have suffered structural damage until they are inspected, and keeping a small family emergency plan prepared while the situation normalizes.
Experience shows that, although aftershocks tend to lose intensity over time, it is precisely during the first hours and days when new movements capable of generating alarm among the population can occur.