Turnout in this Sunday's Andalusian elections on May 17th stands at [XX.XX%] as of 11:30 AM, according to the first update provided by the Junta de Andalucía. This figure represents [an increase / a decrease / a very similar figure] compared to the 2022 regional elections, when 15.44% of the electorate had voted by the same time, with 985,053 voters.
This first update is the first real thermometer of the election day. Until now, the campaign had been marked by polls published before the legal veto, but since this Sunday, the polls no longer speak: turnout speaks. And in elections where an absolute majority is set at 55 seats, any change in mobilization can alter the final composition of the Andalusian Parliament.
The 11:30 AM figure should still be viewed with caution. It is a very early snapshot, influenced by school opening times, early voting, and the habits of each province. However, it does allow us to detect whether the day is starting with more momentum than in 2022 or if, on the contrary, the trend of low mobilization that marked the last regional elections continues.
Turnout at 11:30 AM in Andalusia: comparison with 2022
In the 2022 Andalusian elections, the first turnout update showed a figure of 15.44% at 11:30 AM. That percentage was equivalent to 985,053 voters. This Sunday, the 2026 figure stands at [XX.XX%], which is [X points more / X points less] than four years ago.
The comparison is important because 2022 was a day of low turnout in historical terms, with high abstention and a clear absolute majority for Juanma Moreno's PP. If turnout increases this Sunday, we will have to analyze where it does so: in large cities, in traditionally socialist provinces, or in areas where the left needs to mobilize votes. If it falls, the initial interpretation may favor the most loyal and structured electorates.
In a regional election held alone, without general or municipal elections to draw voters, turnout is one of the most sensitive factors. It not only measures how many people go to vote; it also helps interpret which blocs are more activated.
Figures by province: where the day starts strongest
In 2022, the first participation update at 11:30 AM showed clear differences between provinces. Córdoba was the province with the highest initial participation, with 17.35%, followed by Jaén, with 16.97%, and Granada, with 16.82%. At the opposite end, Huelva recorded the lowest figure, with 12.22%, and Cádiz stood at 13.56%.
For 2026, the provincial data from the first update are as follows:
Almería: [XX,XX%] compared to 16.10% in 2022.
Cádiz: [XX,XX%] compared to 13.56% in 2022.
Córdoba: [XX,XX%] compared to 17.35% in 2022.
Granada: [XX,XX%] compared to 16.82% in 2022.
Huelva: [XX,XX%] compared to 12.22% in 2022.
Jaén: [XX,XX%] compared to 16.97% in 2022.
Málaga: [XX,XX%] compared to 15.62% in 2022.
Sevilla: [XX,XX%] compared to 15.08% in 2022.
Why this first figure matters so much
The 11:30 AM update matters because it comes before parties can interpret the day's mood with solid data. It is the first objective signal about whether voters are going to the polls with more intensity than in 2022 or if the day is progressing with less mobilization.
For the PP, a contained participation can help maintain the advantage of a highly loyal electorate, although there is also the risk of overconfidence if some of its voters take victory for granted. For the PSOE, higher participation can be a necessary condition to try to improve its 2022 result, especially if it comes from urban areas and territories where progressive voters abstained in the last regional elections.
Vox will also watch the data closely. Its objective is not only to grow, but to prevent Moreno from reaching an absolute majority. And to the left of the PSOE, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía need to transform votes into seats in specific provinces, where a few thousand votes can make a difference.
The next key figure will arrive at 2:00 PM
The Junta will offer a second participation update at 2:00 PM and a third at 6:00 PM, before the polling stations close at 8:00 PM. The midday figure will be more solid than the 11:30 AM one, but the 6:00 PM figure is usually the most relevant for anticipating the final level of mobilization.
In 2022, turnout at 2:00 PM was 34.24%, with 2,184,517 voters. At 6:00 PM it stood at 44.51%, with 2,839,451 electors. These will be the next two references to measure whether this March 17th behaves as a day of continuity or if there is a real change in mobilization. It is worth remembering that the previous elections were almost in summer - on June 19th - compared to this May 17th, more included within the usual normality of Andalusians.
The polling stations will close at 8:00 PM. From that moment on, the provisional count will begin and attention will shift to the distribution of seats, especially to the last deputies from provinces such as Cádiz, Córdoba, Málaga, Granada, and Sevilla.
A first sign before election night
The data at 11:30 AM does not decide an election, but it does set the tone for the day. In Andalusia, where an absolute majority is decided by 55 seats and the last provincial remnants can change the final result, turnout is not a secondary piece of data: it is one of the first pieces of the puzzle.
This Sunday, much more than a victory is being voted on. It is being voted on whether Moreno can govern alone, whether Montero manages to mobilize the PSOE, whether Vox becomes the key, and whether the alternative left manages to grow where it needs to. Turnout is the first clue. The count will provide the answer.