Andalusia votes this Sunday, May 17, with an election night that will not be measured solely in votes, but above all in seats, provincial remainders, and real governing capacity. With 109 deputies at stake and the absolute majority set at 55, the question is not only who wins, but whether Juanma Moreno can continue to govern alone or if the result opens a negotiation with Vox. The PSOE of Andalusia and possibly that of Spain also have a lot at stake here, after deciding that their national 'number two', María Jesús Montero, will lead the electoral ticket after the previous general secretary, Juan Espadas, stepped aside.
The day has three major political figures. The first is 55, the border that separates Juanma Moreno's PP's absolute majority from any scenario of dependence. The second is 30, the result the socialists obtained in 2022 and which serves as a benchmark for María Jesús Montero. The third is 5, the minimum number of deputies that can mark the leap of the alternative left and a change of political cycle in that area of the ideological spectrum: own group, leadership of the space, and narrative capacity.
From there, the night will be played out in the fine print: Vox trying to surpass its 14 deputies from 2022, Por Andalucía defending its space, Adelante Andalucía seeking to grow, the provincialist candidacies trying to make a dent, and the last seats in Córdoba, Málaga, Cádiz, Granada, or Seville deciding whether there is an absolute majority or a deadlock.
The Decisive Figure: Moreno's 55 Seats
All of Spain is awaiting Juanma Moreno's possible absolute majority. The first piece of data to look at on Sunday will not be the PP's percentage, but a very specific figure: 55 seats. This is the absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament. Anything above that will allow Juanma Moreno to govern alone. Anything below that will open a different legislature, with Vox demanding a political price.
Moreno has lived a complicated journey in recent months: from the crisis of cancer screenings, which ended with resignations in his Health leadership to the rise of Vox coinciding with the previous regional elections in Spain -Extremadura, Aragón- and its subsequent slowdown in Castilla y León, as well as complications from various climate disasters and the dramatic AVE accident in Adamuz. Despite the ups and downs, he arrives very competitive for the 17M, with real possibilities of revalidating the absolute majority, threatened, of course, by a handful of votes that will be measured in the distribution of the so-called 'remainders' in the provinces, to achieve the last seat, which he achieved in 2022.
The PP can win clearly and, even so, lose the absolute majority if several remainders slip away. Moreno doesn't just need to be first. He needs the provincial map to give him a clean sum. If he achieved this, he would automatically gain the status of the main asset of Feijóo's national PP, achieving a real boost against other barons like Ayuso or Rueda.
The 58 of 2022: repeating a wave for a sensational achievement
One of Juanma Moreno's great successes in this campaign has been to normalize the idea that he will fall compared to previous elections and sell it as a triumph. Although the figure has been glimpsed in some polls, it seems assumed that the second reference for Moreno, repeating his own result from 2022, is not so relevant. Then, the PP achieved 58 seats, with 43.13% of the votes, and reached the first absolute popular majority in Andalusia. It was a very broad victory, but also very efficient in terms of provincial distribution.
Repeating or approaching those 58 deputies would allow the PP to sell a night of total consolidation: Moreno would not only have won, but would have shown that his absolute majority was not an exception in 2022, but a new power structure in Andalusia, which would possibly make it more difficult for Pedro Sánchez to repeat the result of 23J of 2023, where he was able to remain in government thanks to a near-tie between PP and PSOE in Andalusia, one of the two 'electoral engines' necessary to stay in La Moncloa - with Catalonia being the other -.
The 30 of Montero: resistance or debacle
For the Andalusian socialists, the central figure is 30 deputies. It is the result that Juan Espadas obtained in 2022, with 24.09% of the votes.
Just as Moreno has done, María Jesús Montero has managed to make the narrative of resistance - that is, matching those 30 seats - 'sellable' as a triumph, when the truth is that she came into these elections with a task: to demonstrate that PSOE-A still has a base, territorial strength, and the capacity for recovery in a community that was its great bastion for decades.
She herself has stated on several occasions that she was competing "to win," and the truth is that her high level of recognition in Andalusia and nationally, and her enormous power within the Government of Spain until a few weeks ago and within the PSOE itself, mean that failing to at least match the 30 seats is a very harsh signal for Andalusian socialism and for Ferraz.
From here downwards, the drama will intensify according to the final result. There are several benchmarks, but it seems accepted that holding above 28 seats and around 23% of the vote could mean saving the furniture, and anything below 28 and below 22% could trigger a real earthquake within the Andalusian and Spanish socialists. This is because these thresholds would cause the PSOE of Andalusia to fall to unprecedented levels, even compared to other federations in this electoral cycle - Alegría in Aragon managed to achieve 24.37% - and would mean an increase in the fall compared to the previous elections - that is, losing by a greater margin than what happened in 2022, the first year of the PSOE in opposition in Andalusia, compared to 2018.
Where the PSOE is in better shape than in previous elections is in the distance from Vox, which, during several months of rise for Abascal's party, was a real threat: that of a "sorpasso" or finishing very close to Manuel Gavira's party. Now, a distance almost similar to that of 2022 is almost taken for granted.
Vox and the 14 deputies of 2022: growing is not enough, it has to be decisive
Vox obtained 14 deputies in the Andalusian elections of 2022, with 13.46% of the votes. That is its minimum benchmark for tonight. Anything that improves that figure will allow Manuel Gavira to sell growth; anything that stays close to or below it will activate doubts about the party's ceiling in Andalusia.
But the real question for Vox is not whether it gains one or two seats. The question is whether it manages to make the PP dependent on it. That is where the narrative shift lies: from a third force with parliamentary presence to an indispensable player for the investiture.
If Moreno reaches 55, Vox can grow and still remain outside of real power. If Moreno stays at 54, 53 or less, any Vox deputy becomes a negotiation chip. That is why Abascal has so hardened his face-to-face with the PP during the campaign and has insisted that his support will not be free. Therefore, in these elections he has a double 'ballot': he has to grow, as has happened in other territories, and he has to manage to snatch the absolute majority from Moreno. As of today, it is not clear that either of these two things can happen and it could mean a before and after for the formation also at a national level.
Adelante Andalucía: a change of cycle in Andalusian politics?
The first figure to look at in what is called 'the left of the left' in Andalusia is 5. The Regulation of the Parliament of Andalusia establishes that deputies, in a number not less than five, can form a parliamentary group.
That number is key for Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía. In 2022, Por Andalucía achieved 5 seats and Adelante Andalucía obtained 2. Now, the struggle is not only how many deputies the left adds to the left of the PSOE, but who leads that space.
Por Andalucía, with Antonio Maíllo, needs to stay above that symbolic threshold to present itself as a useful, stable and recognizable force. Adelante Andalucía, with José Ignacio García, is being a real surprise and aims to grow enough to dispute the political leadership of the Andalusian left and, if it reaches five, open a narrative of a real overtaking.
This would mean a real change of cycle in Andalusian politics, which would once again have an Andalusian option in clear ascent and could mark a turning point for the rest of the left, including the PSOE, given the behavior of, for example, the BNG in Galicia.
Cádiz and Jaén: the provincialist candidacies want to enter the game
Another focus will be on territorialist candidacies. Jaén Merece Más already ran in 2022 and was left without representation, although it achieved 18,685 votes in Andalusia as a whole. This time it is trying again to make a space in a province where territorial grievance has political traction.
There is also 100x100 Unidos Cádiz, promoted from Gaditan municipalism and with Juan Franco as a reference from La Línea. These candidacies do not need great regional results to make news. It is enough for them to snatch one seat in their province.
That scenario is not the central one, but it is politically explosive. If the PP does not reach 55 and some territorial party enters, the night stops being just PP-Vox and a much more complex game begins.
The leftovers: where Moreno can win or lose the majority
The Andalusian election is not decided in a single constituency. It is decided in eight provinces, each with its own distribution. That is why the leftovers can be decisive. The last deputy in a province can change hands by very few votes.
In 2022, the PP won four last provincial seats in Seville, Malaga, Cordoba, and Cadiz. In several cases, these leftovers were very narrow and helped to build Moreno's final absolute majority.
This Sunday, special attention should be paid to Cordoba, Malaga, Cadiz, Granada, and Seville. Cordoba and Malaga could be key for the PP to maintain the final push towards the majority. Cadiz can measure whether the PSOE recovers ground or if Vox and Adelante erode the distribution. Granada will be important to see if Adelante Andalucía manages to translate expectations into seats. Seville, due to its size, always carries weight: it distributes 18 deputies and any movement there has a direct effect on the final sum.