Survey Andalusian elections: Moreno retains absolute majority, Montero sinks PSOE and alternative left grows, according to NC Report

Juanma Moreno would arrive at the Andalusian elections of next May 17 with an absolute majority fully consolidated. The latest poll by NC Report for La Razón grants the Popular Party 58 seats and 43.9% of the votes, exactly the same result as obtained in 2022 and enough to govern alone for another four years.

The poll thus confirms the strength of the Andalusian president in the final stretch of the campaign and leaves the PSOE in a critical situation, with María Jesús Montero unable to stop the deterioration of socialism in its former great electoral stronghold.

Moreno would repeat the historic result of 2022

According to the survey, the PP would maintain its parliamentary representation intact with 58 deputies, three above the absolute majority set at 55 seats. Juanma Moreno would not only retain control of the Junta, but would also consolidate his transversal profile by attracting votes from the PSOE, Vox, and former Ciudadanos voters.

The loyalty of his electorate exceeds 90%, an extraordinary figure after almost eight years in government.

Montero takes PSOE to another historic low

María Jesús Montero would obtain 28 seats and 22.8% of the votes, two deputies less than Juan Espadas in 2022 and five less than Susana Díaz in 2018. The result would confirm the worst electoral cycle for the Andalusian PSOE and would reinforce the idea that the candidacy of the former vice president has not managed to mobilize the socialist electorate.

Vox rises, but fails to condition Moreno

Vox would reach 15 deputies, one more than in the previous elections. Although its representation improves slightly, the growth is much lower than that registered in other communities such as Extremadura or Aragon and would not be enough to turn Santiago Abascal's party into a decisive player.

The alternative left grows

Por Andalucía would maintain its five seats, while Adelante Andalucía would increase from two to three deputies. Overall, the space to the left of the PSOE improves slightly, but without altering the general balance of power in the Andalusian Parliament.

Moreno also leads among young people

One of the most significant data points from the poll is that the PP appears as the leading force in all age groups, including voters aged 18 to 29. This result reinforces the consolidation of Juanma Moreno's leadership and his ability to attract support beyond the PP's traditional electorate.

Less than a week before the elections, the NC Report poll paints a very favorable scenario for Juanma Moreno: intact absolute majority, PSOE at historic lows, and Vox without the capacity to influence governability. If this trend is confirmed on May 17, Andalusia will continue to be the main institutional bastion of the Popular Party and one of the PSOE's greatest electoral weaknesses.

Source: NC Report for La Razón, published on 05/11/2026