50 days of war in Iran are being fulfilled. The failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran to reach a nuclear agreement laid the groundwork for a war escalation in the Middle East whose consequences persist to this day. The conflict, which has extended its reach throughout the region, has altered markets, has sent gasoline prices soaring, and keeps hundreds of thousands of people suffering an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in Lebanon in suspense.
Israel concentrates its attacks in the south of the region, according to it, to combat the Shiite militia Hezbollah. Both countries have agreed to a two-week ceasefire after a round of contacts coordinated from Washington. In this framework, Iran has announced the reopening while that truce lasts of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage of the Persian Gulf through which about 20% of the world's crude oil passes and which has become the bulk of the negotiations for the coming weeks.
That gesture, which could be seen as a step towards de-escalating the conflict, nevertheless keeps the actors involved expectant, since the President of the United States, Donald Trump, has said that he will continue to maintain his naval blockade on Iranian ships as long as Tehran and Washington do not manage to sign an agreement to curb the war.
Iranian sources have confirmed through the country's agencies that the US president's decision could jeopardize the reopening of the maritime enclave. But Tehran's announcement contains fine print. The passage will only remain open for those vessels authorized by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, upon prior payment of fees.
However, the date that will put an end to the conflict is still uncertain, although the door to diplomacy has been opened with gestures from Iran that can be interpreted as a breath of fresh air in a conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives.
Trump, optimistic, but with everything up in the air
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage of all merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire period." Thus, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on social media.
After his declaration to the world, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, applauded the reopening of the maritime corridor, "ready for full transit", as he also published on his social networks. The news has not only been celebrated by those directly involved, but markets also breathed a sigh of relief. The Ibex closed up 2% in line with the rest of the European stock exchanges. Oil plummeted on Friday afternoon, sinking nearly 10%.
But everything remains up in the air. Trump, for his part, has said he expects to reach an agreement "in a day or two" that will allow an end to the open conflict between both countries, according to statements made in an interview with the digital outlet Axios. Thus, he maintains that the parties are moving towards a possible meeting this weekend and that there is an immediate window to close a pact.
The conversations between the United States and Iran are taking place in the context of a ceasefire in effect until next Tuesday the 21st, agreed upon with Israel on April 8th. Despite this, the White House does not rule out a new meeting in Islamabad (Pakistan) during the weekend, although for the moment it has not been officially confirmed by any of the parties. Pakistan, one of the few countries that maintains diplomatic relations with both the US and Iran, remains a mediator in the conflict.
Iran warns... time and time again
But Iran's position is not so optimistic. An official Iranian source cited by the Reuters agency points out that no agreement has yet been reached on the key aspects of the nuclear program and that the continuity of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz would be conditioned on the United States fulfilling the terms of the ceasefire.
In this context, the source warns that any interpretation that does not reflect this state of negotiations constitutes, in its words, a "misrepresentation of the situation". On Friday afternoon, Iran warned, not once but twice: if the United States does not lift the naval blockade, Tehran will close the strait again. This was warned by the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, alluding to "reciprocal measures".
Lebanese President Calls for a Framework of Permanent Agreements
Meanwhile, the Lebanese Ministry of Health has updated the victim toll from the Israeli attacks registered since March 2, raising the number of deaths to at least 2,294 people, while the injured amount to 7,544. Authorities warn that the toll could increase as rescue efforts continue among the rubble and identification processes through DNA testing.
The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, defends the need for the ceasefire reached with Israel to evolve towards "permanent agreements", through a message in which he does not specify whether this roadmap implies a future formal peace agreement between both countries.
In a televised speech, Aoun placed the country on Friday before a political and security "new phase", marked by the transition from a temporary cessation of hostilities towards a stable framework that, as he has pointed out, must guarantee Lebanese sovereignty, territorial unity, and the rights of its population. The president has thanked the role of the United States and several regional actors in achieving the ceasefire.
"Today we negotiate and decide for ourselves," stated Aoun, who remarked that Lebanon must not again be used as a stage for confrontation between powers or armed actors.
International response, a climate of uncertainty
On the international stage, European leaders have welcomed the announcement, although they remain cautious. British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has pointed out that a dozen countries have already committed military contributions for a future international mission aimed at ensuring the security and openness of the Strait of Hormuz.
Starmer says that next week London will host a military planning conference, following the meeting held in Paris with the participation of dozens of countries and international organizations and under the coordination of French President Emmanuel Macron. The objective of the meeting is to define the operational scope of a mission that is planned as strictly defensive.
In the same context, the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, have expressed their willingness to contribute to the mission in military terms. Merz has pointed out that, once hostilities have ended, Germany could be integrated into an international operation in the area, always within a multilateral framework.
The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has also positively assessed Iran's announcement, calling it "a step in the right direction", as expressed on the social network X.
Guterres has reiterated that the United Nations' position remains clear: it is necessary to move towards the full restoration of international rights and freedoms of navigation in the strait, one of the most strategic maritime routes for global trade.
And on the same line but on the national level, the Spanish Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, calls the announcement by Iran "good news", although he has warned that the situation remains marked by uncertainty and that there are still "many unanswered questions" about the real implementation of the measure.
The uncertainty that the advance of the conflict awakens for Albares is shared by many international leaders. Also by citizens, and especially by the inhabitants of the affected region, who wake up every day for 50 years without knowing how the Middle East will dawn.