General elections poll: PP would beat PSOE by almost 4 points and the right-wing parties would reach around 200 seats, according to the CIS review by Target Point

The May barometer from the Sociological Research Center, published this Friday, keeps the PSOE as the leading force with 36.2% of the votes, ahead of the PP, which would reach 24.9%, and Vox, which would rise to 16.2%. 

However, a re-estimation prepared by Target Point based on the data published by the organization chaired by José Félix Tezanos offers a very different electoral picture.

According to this revision, disseminated by El Debate, the Popular Party would be the most voted force with 31.0% of the support. The PSOE would remain in second place with 27.4%, while Vox would reach 19.0%. With this distribution, the sum of PP and Vox would be around 200 deputies, clearly above the absolute majority set at 176 seats.

The CIS keeps the PSOE 11 points ahead of the PP

The official CIS data places the PSOE in the lead with a 11.3-point advantage over the Popular Party. The socialists would obtain 36.2% of the votes, two tenths less than in the previous barometer, while the PP would rise to 24.9%, 1.3 points more than in April.

Vox also improves its position in the official study and reaches 16.2%, after rising 1.5 points. Sumar remains at 5.7% and Podemos rises to 2.5%.

The fieldwork for the barometer was carried out between May 4 and 18, with 4,016 interviews. This date is relevant because the poll does not capture the possible electoral impact of the political and judicial events known in the following days.

Target Point's re-estimation changes the order of the parties

Target Point's alternative reading starts from a rebalancing of vote recall compared to the 2023 general elections and an extrapolation based on voting intention and sympathy. The estimation, published by El Debate, does not modify the CIS fieldwork, but rather applies a different methodology to the available data.

With this calculation, the PP would go from the official 24.9% of the CIS to the 31.0% estimated by Target Point. The PSOE would drop from 36.2% to 27.4%. Vox, for its part, would rise from 16.2% to 19.0%.

PP and Vox would be above the absolute majority

The main political consequence of the revision lies in the seat projection. According to Target Point, the sum of PP and Vox would be around 200 deputies in Congress.

That figure would clearly surpass the absolute majority, set at 176 seats, and would leave the right-wing bloc in a sufficient position for an investiture if the territorial distribution accompanied that estimate.

The projection would also be close to 210 seats, a relevant threshold because it is equivalent to three-fifths of Congress, although any constitutional reform would also require an equivalent majority in the Senate.

A poll prior to the latest political and judicial milestones

The barometer's calendar is one of the central elements of the political reading. The interviews were conducted before the main episodes that have marked the agenda in recent days became known, including the judicial developments linked to former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the searches at the PSOE headquarters in Ferraz, and other politically impactful information.

Therefore, neither the official CIS data nor Target Point's subsequent re-estimation yet measure the possible electoral effect of these events. The survey reflects a snapshot prior to that informational sequence.

That nuance is key to interpreting the barometer's real scope. The CIS measures a previous moment; Target Point offers a methodological re-reading of that same starting point.

Source: Target Point for El Debate, published on 05/30/2026.