Colombia faces this Sunday a key presidential election in which it will be decided who will succeed Gustavo Petro in the Casa de Nariño. The contest has narrowed between the continuity embodied by Iván Cepeda, heir to his social agenda, and the right-wing candidacies of Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia, in a climate of strong polarization and with the burden of the current government's failure to consolidate peace.
The electoral roll includes 41.1 million citizens, including residents abroad, who have been able to start casting their votes during the week. On this occasion, the electoral appointment is limited to choosing a presidential ticket, as the legislative elections took place in March.
To avoid a second round, any candidate must exceed the threshold of 50% of the votes. Cepeda is the only one who, according to some opinion polls, would have a chance of achieving it. In any case, the polls agree in placing him as the undisputed favorite to at least secure his presence in the runoff scheduled for June 21.
The candidate of the Historical Pact has promised to continue Petro's progressive agenda, strengthening the role of the state in areas such as pensions and healthcare, and reopening peace dialogue processes only with those armed groups that renounce the assassination of social leaders.
The most favorable polls give him up to 44% intention to vote, while the most cautious place him around ten points lower. However, Cepeda could find himself in trouble in an eventual second round against a coalition of conservative forces.
A philosopher, veteran congressman, and recognized defender of Human Rights, he has built part of his public profile on the legal battle against former president Álvaro Uribe for his alleged links to paramilitarism and the use of false witnesses, a case for which Uribe was convicted and later acquitted.
Cepeda has participated in various peace processes, including the one that culminated in 2016 with the demobilization of the FARC, and has achieved recognition of the massacre of more than 5,700 members of the Unión Patriótica (UP) as genocide, a party to which his father belonged before being assassinated in 1994 in a plot involving state agents and paramilitary groups.
The right seeks to consolidate the vote
Cepeda's main rival in the polls is the self-proclaimed 'outsider' Abelardo de la Espriella, a businessman and controversial far-right figure who has acted as a lawyer for controversial figures such as the convicted fraudster David Murcia Guzmán or Alex Saab, identified as a frontman for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
"Recovering strength by reason or by force within the framework of the law" is one of the central slogans of his campaign. A confessed admirer of former US President Donald Trump and his anti-drug strategy, De la Espriella aligns himself with other conservative leaders in the region who look to the hardline model of El Salvador's Nayib Bukele.
Among his proposals is a shock plan to tackle the humanitarian crisis in the Colombian healthcare system and a frontal offensive against corruption, with the promise of returning "that more than 20 million euros" that he calculates are diverted annually into citizens' pockets.
Under the independent banner Defensores de la patria, some polls place him between 30% and 37% of the vote, while other polls, such as those by the radio station Caracol or the newspaper "El Tiempo", extend Cepeda's lead to ten points.
The third candidate in contention is Senator Paloma Valencia, a member of a historic conservative family that includes former President Guillermo León Valencia. The candidate for the Centro Democrático, backed by Uribe, would be around 14% of the votes, a percentage insufficient to contest the second round.
Like De la Espriella, she proposes to toughen military operations against armed groups, even with US support, increase penalties, and rejects the transitional justice arising from the 2016 peace agreement, as well as any negotiated solution to the conflict.
Valencia defends a traditional conception of the family, denies that abortion is a women's right, and rejects adoption by same-sex couples, a stance she publicly reiterated to her running mate, Juan Daniel Oviedo, an openly homosexual candidate.
Her figure remains marked by the controversial proposal to divide the department of Cauca into two, one for indigenous communities—whom she accused of colluding with the FARC—, "so that they can carry out their strikes, their demonstrations, and their invasions, and one with a vocation for development," intended for the rest of the population.
Urgent challenges for the new government
Among the electorate's main concerns is the crisis of the public health system. To the shortage of medicines and healthcare personnel are added management problems, lack of resources, and the pressure caused by the arrival of thousands of Venezuelans to border areas in search of medical attention that they cannot find in their country.
Petro will conclude his term with his ambitious health reform shelved in Congress after more than a year of debates. The project sought to strengthen the primary care network and, above all, for the State to assume direct control of resources, eliminating the intermediation of private companies, which he holds responsible for the misuse of funds, the most controversial point of the initiative.
Along with health, corruption and security are among the greatest citizen concerns. Colombia continues to be among the most violent countries in the region. According to official data, in 2025 the homicide rate reached its highest level since 2021, with 14,000 murders. In the last five years, armed organizations have doubled their personnel, with the Clan del Golfo as the most visible example.
Petro's commitment to "total peace" has clashed with the reality that drug trafficking remains a much more profitable business than the legal alternatives offered by the State, despite the reduction in poverty, the increase in the minimum wage, and growth forecasts slightly above the regional average.
The Government has achieved progress in agrarian matters, with the formalization of 1.7 million hectares, the promotion of the substitution of illicit crops instead of their forced eradication, and some of the largest cocaine seizures in recent years. However, the area planted with coca remains at historic highs.
Whoever is elected will have to try to fulfill their promises in a Congress where the Historical Pact is the leading force in the Senate and House, followed by the Democratic Center. This balance anticipates a highly polarized legislature, in which traditional parties such as Liberals and Conservatives will be decisive in forming majorities and possible government coalitions.