The National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) has introduced a relevant shift in the planning of the Spanish airport system by recommending a slight decrease in airport charges of 0.59% annually between 2027 and 2031, within the framework of the future Airport Regulation Document (DORA III).
The regulatory body's decision is not binding, but it is key in the process that will culminate in the approval of the plan by the Council of Ministers before September 30.
Its position is midway between Aena's proposal, which advocated for annual increases of 3.8%, and the airlines' stance, which demanded cuts of up to 4.9%.
A balance between investment and prices
The CNMC's report defends a strategy of tariff containment with the aim of reinforcing the efficiency of the system without compromising its economic sustainability.
The regulator emphasizes that the scenario proposed by Aena could incorporate inefficiencies in operating costs, especially in the operating expenses (OPEX) section, which the CNMC cuts by 741 million compared to the airport operator's forecasts.
In parallel, the body raises air traffic estimates to 366.7 million passengers in 2031, above the 346.7 million projected by Aena. This adjustment is decisive: a higher volume of travelers means less pressure on per-passenger fares.
The cost of capital, another point of contention
One of the most sensitive elements of the report is the review of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which the CNMC places at 7.4%, compared to the 9% proposed by Aena.
The cut seeks to align with European regulatory criteria and practices in other regulated sectors, thus reducing the profit margin that the airport operator can pass on to fares.
A historic investment plan at the center of the debate
DORA III contemplates an investment of close to 13 billion euros until 2031, of which almost 10 billion correspond to regulated assets linked to capacity expansions at major airports.
Aena argues that this investment effort requires a more expansive tariff framework, while the airlines maintain the opposite: that traffic forecasts are conservative and that the system already generates high returns for the public operator.
The distance between both parties remains significant. Aena estimates annual traffic growth of 1.3%, while airlines raise that figure to 3.6%, relying on external studies.
That difference is not minor, it directly conditions the volume of revenue per passenger and fuels a gap of approximately 5 billion euros between both tariff scenarios.