PP, Vox and UPN would achieve an absolute majority of 208 seats today if general elections were held, according to the preliminary results of the SocioMétrica poll that El Español will publish this Sunday. The poll places the opposition at its best result of the legislature and opens a gap of 66 deputies compared to the bloc that made Pedro Sánchez's investiture possible in 2023.
The investiture bloc would be reduced to 140 seats, or 142 if Adelante Andalucía is included, the party founded by Teresa Rodríguez and now led by José Ignacio García, which would have a chance of entering Congress. Its emergence would explain part of the growth of the nationalist and sovereignist bloc, which would go from the current 27 deputies to 30, although that advance would not be enough to compensate for the fall of the PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
The poll comes amid a political crisis due to the latest judicial setbacks affecting the PSOE and the Government's circle, including the indictment of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the entry of the UCO into the socialist headquarters in Ferraz in the investigation into the alleged sewer of Leire Díez.
PP, Vox and UPN would reach 208 seats
The main finding of the SocioMétrica preliminary results is the broad absolute majority that PP, Vox, and UPN would obtain. The three parties would sum up 208 deputies, well above the 176 that mark the absolute majority in Congress.
The figure represents an improvement compared to the previous SocioMétrica poll published by El Español on April 20, which already granted PP, Vox, and UPN a majority of 200 seats.
Sánchez's bloc falls to 140 seats
In contrast to the opposition's advance, the bloc that supported Pedro Sánchez's investiture would be reduced to 140 deputies. The figure would be far from an absolute majority and would open a very complicated scenario for an eventual repetition of the current parliamentary majority.
The gap between the two blocs would be 66 seats. In other words, PP, Vox, and UPN would not only clearly surpass the investiture bloc, but they would do so with a margin that would make re-editing the 2023 arithmetic practically unviable.
The preliminary results of the poll also indicate that the PSOE is receding and dragging its left-wing partners down with it, especially Sumar and Podemos, despite the attempts by both parties to distance themselves from the socialists in recent days.
Adelante Andalucía could enter Congress
One of the novelties of the poll is the possible entry of Adelante Andalucía into Congress. The party, which caused a surprise in the recent Andalusian elections, would have options to obtain representation and would increase the weight of the nationalist and sovereignist bloc.
According to the advance from El Español, the bloc of nationalist parties would go from the current 27 seats to 30. This growth would be largely due to the possible entry of Adelante Andalucía, which aims to occupy a sovereignist left-wing space with an Andalusian identity.
The party claims its own profile, distinct from Sumar and Podemos, and seeks to compete in a similar logic to other territorial forces such as ERC, EH Bildu, or BNG.
Nationalists grow, but do not save Sánchez
The growth of the nationalist bloc would not be enough to sustain a new investiture of Sánchez. Although nationalist and sovereignist forces would go from 27 to 30 seats, the fall of the PSOE and its partners on the left would leave the progressive bloc with no room to reach a majority.
The survey also points to internal movements within that space. Sovereignist left-wing forces such as EH Bildu, ERC, and BNG would grow, while more traditional parties such as PNV and Junts would lose weight.
PP widens its lead over PSOE
The advance of the poll indicates that Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP would clearly win the general elections and widen its gap over the PSOE.
In the previous SocioMétrica poll, published on April 20, the PP already appeared as the leading force with 140 seats and 31.8% of the vote, compared to a PSOE at 110 deputies and 27%. Now, according to the advance from El Español, this trend is accentuated.
Vox also grows, although more limitedly. It would improve its results, although the published advance points to more moderate growth than that of the PP. In the previous SocioMétrica poll, Santiago Abascal's party obtained 59 seats and 16.9% of the vote. The new poll reflects an increase, although Vox would remain far from the 20% threshold, a relevant barrier to improving its performance in the distribution of seats by provinces.
Pedro Sánchez speaks of a "stumble"
Pedro Sánchez has tried to downplay the political impact of recent events and has spoken of a "stumble". However, the SocioMétrica advance points to an electoral punishment that would not only affect the PSOE but also its parliamentary partners.
In recent days, several political actors have called for immediate elections or explanations from the President of the Government. Among them are leaders from Junts and PNV, as well as the president of Castilla-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, and former presidents like Felipe González and José María Aznar.