The latest national polls in Brazil consulted before the elections on October 4 show Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in first position, but do not depict a uniform advantage nor allow for the presidential race to be considered resolved. The distance from Flávio Bolsonaro changes according to the institute and the voting scenario.
In the studies published on September 17, Datafolha places Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36%; AtlasIntel/Bloomberg raises both supports to 44.1% and 41.7%, respectively; and Futura offers a closer result, of 38.3% versus 37.7%. The data is collected in the comparison of polls published by UOL.
What the latest first-round polls say
The following table records the publication date, not necessarily all the days of fieldwork. That distinction is important: a poll released later may include interviews conducted before those of another study.
| Institute | Publication | Lula | Flávio Bolsonaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Datafolha | 09/17/2026 | 39% | 36% |
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg | 09/17/2026 | 44.1% | 41.7% |
| Futura | 09/17/2026 | 38.3% | 37.7% |
| Quaest | 09/14/2026 | 36% | 31% |
| BTG/Nexus | 09/14/2026 | 42% | 37% |
Source: compilation by UOL. The table shows only the two indicated candidates; the rest corresponds to other candidacies and responses, according to each poll.
The second round offers a different picture
In a direct confrontation, Datafolha places Lula at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 44%. Futura, on the other hand, places the opposition candidate at 48.1%, compared to the current president's 43.7%, according to the compilation of second-round scenarios by UOL.
The comparison illustrates why leading the first round does not guarantee winning in the second. When the number of options is reduced, supports can be redistributed and the decisions of some interviewees change.
Sample, method, and margin of error
Datafolha worked with 2,002 interviews and reports a margin of two percentage points; Futura, with 2,000 telephone interviews and a margin of 2.2 points; AtlasIntel, with 5,018 interviews via digital capture and a margin of one point, according to the records collected by UOL.
When Brazil votes and what is needed to win
The first round takes place on October 4, according to the Superior Electoral Court. The legislation requires an absolute majority of valid votes to resolve the presidential election in that round; blank and null votes are not included in that calculation base, according to Brazilian electoral law.
The conclusion of the consulted studies is limited but clear: Lula retains the numerical leadership of the first round, while the direct dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro remains open.