The elections in Germany this Sunday, September 20 will test the territorial power of the main parties in two different scenarios. Berlin will decide whether to maintain the conservative leadership of its Government, while Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will measure the capacity of the social democrat Manuela Schwesig to contain Alternative for Germany, AfD.
The day may increase political pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, although these are not federal elections nor do they directly decide who occupies the Chancellery. Regional parliaments are elected, and from their majorities, the governments of both territories.
Berlin: The Left contests the first place against the CDU
The latest INSA poll collected by Wahlrecht, published on September 18, places the Left at 21%, one point ahead of the CDU. AfD appears with 18%, followed by the Greens with 15%, and the SPD with 12%.
The survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF on September 17 offers a similar picture, although it expands the Left's lead to two points: 22% against the CDU's 20%.
The candidacy of Elif Eralp thus arrives with options to contest the leadership of the capital. But coming in first does not guarantee governance: the distribution of seats and agreements between parties will determine the parliamentary majority.
Housing occupies a central place in the Berlin campaign. The rising cost of rents and the lack of supply have turned residential proposals into one of the main areas of electoral confrontation.
Mecklenburg: Schwesig and AfD arrive very close
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the latest ZDF poll places the SPD at 37% and AfD at 36%. The survey was published on September 17 and was conducted between the 14th and 17th.
INSA had offered an inverse order the day before: AfD obtained 37% and the SPD 35%. The differences between both studies prevent presenting a clear winner before the vote.
| Territory and poll | First force | Second force |
|---|---|---|
| Berlin · INSA · September 18 | The Left: 21% | CDU: 20% |
| Berlin · ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen · September 17 | The Left: 22% | CDU: 20% |
| Mecklenburg · ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen · September 17 | SPD: 37% | AfD: 36% |
| Mecklenburg · INSA · September 16 | AfD: 37% | SPD: 35% |
Surveys published in September 2026. They are estimates of voting intention, not results or seat projections. The dates correspond to their publication. Sources: Wahlrecht, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
They are estimates of voting intention, not seat projections or results.
What to look for when the counting begins
The first question will be who leads each election. The second, which parties gain representation and how parliamentary arithmetic changes with it.
A party can gain votes and remain outside the Government if it does not gather enough support. It can also retain the ability to govern despite losing the first position if there is an alternative majority.