The PP maintains the first position in the voting estimate of the latest barometer from 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER, with 31.6%. The PSOE obtains 27.4% and Vox reaches 18.4%, while Sumar and Podemos stand at 5.6% and 2.7%, respectively.
The study, conducted from 2,000 online interviews carried out between September 25 and 28, reflects a difference of 16.3 points between the sum of PP, Vox, and SALF and that of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. The survey also captures the movements of voters regarding the general elections of 2023 and their distribution by age and sex.
PP, Vox, and SALF concentrate 52% of the estimate
The percentages attributed to PP, Vox, and SALF sum up to 52% of the estimated vote. The PP contributes 31.6%, Vox 18.4%, and SALF 2%.
In the other set of analyzed state parties, PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos gather 35.7%. The socialists reach 27.4%, Sumar 5.6%, and Podemos 2.7%.
| Formation | Voting estimate | Monthly variation |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.6% | -0.8 points |
| PSOE | 27.4% | -0.2 points |
| Vox | 18.4% | +0.6 points |
| Sumar | 5.6% | -0.1 points |
| Podemos | 2.7% | -0.1 points |
| SALF | 2.0% | -0.2 points |
The data from the study places the PP 4.2 points above the PSOE. Vox is 9 points below the populars and 9.0 points below the combined percentage of PP and PSOE.
The comparison with the last general elections shows a different evolution among the three main formations: the PP maintains a figure close to that of 2023, although lower; the PSOE is below that result and Vox is six points above.
Sumar obtains 5.6% and Podemos 2.7%. Together, they reach 8.3% of the estimate. In the general elections of 2023, the Sumar candidacy, which then included Podemos, obtained 12.3%. The comparison between both figures shows a difference of four points, although it corresponds to two different electoral configurations.
The flow of former PP voters favors Vox
The study also captures where those who supported the different formations in the 2023 elections are moving. Among former PP voters, 13.5% now point to Vox as an option. Conversely, the percentage of Vox voters who would move to the PP is 1.6%. Among those who abstained in the last general elections, Vox receives 11.6% of voting intention. The percentage is 8.2% for the PP and 5.3% for the PSOE.
The percentage of voters who voted for each party in 2023 and who now maintain their intention to repeat that support is 87.4% for Vox, 76.2% for the PP, and 68.4% for the PSOE. Sumar presents a lower figure, at 39.9%. In the previous study, its loyalty was at 44.5%.
| Party | Vote loyalty |
|---|---|
| Vox | 87.4% |
| PP | 76.2% |
| PSOE | 68.4% |
| Sumar | 39.9% |
Among the people who supported Sumar in 2023, 21.7% now declare that they would vote for Podemos and 13.9% that they would opt for the PSOE. Additionally, 9.4% of those who voted for Sumar then remain undecided. The survey thus reflects a notable difference regarding the levels of loyalty recorded among voters of the PP, PSOE, and Vox.
Voting intention changes by sex and age
Vox registers a 22.5% direct voting intention among men, the highest percentage in that distribution. Among women, the PSOE reaches 24.8% and leads that section.
The party of Santiago Abascal obtains its highest percentages of direct intention among voters aged 18 to 44 years. Among those over 65 years, it drops to 12.1%, while the PP and PSOE each reach 28.2% in that age range.
The difference for Vox between men and women is also 6.6 points in direct voting intention, according to the study.
The survey was conducted before the housing decrees
The surveys of this barometer from 40dB. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER were conducted between September 25 and 28. The field period began two days after the eviction of Maricarmen and ended one day before the Government approved the two decrees related to housing mentioned in the context of the study.
Therefore, the results reflect the responses obtained during that specific period and do not incorporate possible changes in public opinion after the interviews were closed.