The latest NC Report survey for La Razón maintains a broad absolute majority for the right, but alters its internal distribution: the PP slips and Vox gains ground. The conservatives go from a range of 141-143 deputies to 138-140, while Santiago Abascal's party rises from 64-66 to 66-68.
The PSOE falls from 25.8% to 25.6%, although it retains its estimate of between 100 and 102 representatives. The drop of two tenths therefore does not translate into a loss of seats compared with the previous study.
PP and Vox would gather between 204 and 208 deputies, compared with the 205–209 in the previous installment. Their combined percentage remains at 51.9%. The absolute majority would remain widely exceeded, although the new poll does not show an expansion of that parliamentary advantage.
The PP gives up three tenths and Vox gains them
The PP remains first with 32.6% of the vote, three tenths less than the previous 32.9%. Vox makes the opposite move: it goes from 19% to 19.3%.
The coincidence between both variations does not by itself show that all those votes were transferred directly from one party to the other. It does reflect a change in the balance of forces on the right, with a somewhat weaker PP and a strengthened Vox.
Feijóo maintains a seven-point lead over Sánchez, compared with the 7.1 in the previous survey. In representation, the PP would obtain between 138 and 140 deputies and Vox, between 66 and 68.
The PSOE slows its improvement, but does not lose deputies in this installment
The PSOE had gone from 25% at the beginning of October to 25.8% in the previous measurement. Now it falls back to 25.6%: it retains an accumulated improvement of six tenths compared with the start of the month, although it interrupts that upward trend.
Its 100-102 deputies would be between 19 and 21 fewer than the 121 obtained in July 2023. But the weekly comparison is different: the range remains unchanged.
This difference matters when interpreting the poll. NC Report records a small Socialist setback in estimated vote, not a new parliamentary decline nor a result necessarily below one hundred seats.
Frente Amplio improves and Podemos risks its only seat
Frente Amplio rises from 6.6% to 6.9% and goes from 8-9 deputies to 9-10. The candidacy led by Ada Colau improves both ends of its range by one representative.
Podemos goes in the opposite direction: it falls from 2.6% to 2.4%. The seat it obtained in the previous installment is no longer guaranteed in the estimate, which now ranges from zero to one.
Adelante Andalucía goes from three representatives to a range of two to three. Among the three candidacies they would gather between eleven and fourteen deputies. The comparison with the 31 of Sumar in 2023 requires remembering that the composition of the lists and the territorial alliances has changed.
Since 23J, Vox concentrates almost all the growth of the right
The PP would obtain between one and three more deputies than the 137 of the last general elections. Vox, however, would gain between 33 and 35 compared with its 33 then: it would double or slightly surpass its representation.
The sum of both parties would go from the 170 deputies of 23J to 204–208. That growth of between 34 and 38 representatives would be concentrated mainly in Vox.
In votes, the PP would stand slightly below the 33.1% of 2023, while Vox would advance from 12.4% to 19.3%. PSOE, with 25.6%, would remain approximately six points below its result in those general elections.
A poll that partially captures the post-Urda scenario
The fieldwork covers October 26 to 29. Since the accident occurred on Wednesday the 28th, the study includes interviews before and after the tragedy.
The conclusion of this installment is a stable right-wing majority in vote percentage, with a shift in weight from the PP toward Vox, a PSOE unchanged in its parliamentary range and an improvement of the Frente Amplio.
See here the details and the overall result of the poll in La Razón
Consult the average of polls of Demócrata and the tools of the general election special.
Consult here the evolution of the vote
NC Report: the vote moves within the blocs
Comparison with the previous delivery from the same pollster.
| Party | Previous | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 32,9% | 32,6% | −0,3 points |
| PSOE | 25,8% | 25,6% | −0,2 points |
| Vox | 19,0% | 19,3% | +0,3 points |
| Frente Amplio | 6,6% | 6,9% | +0,3 points |
| Podemos | 2,6% | 2,4% | −0,2 points |
| PP + Vox | 51,9% | 51,9% | No change |
Source: NC Report for La Razón. Variations calculated on the published percentages. PP + Vox is a subtotal and should not be added again. The current fieldwork includes days before and after the Urda accident.
Consult here the seat evolution table
The PP falls back, Vox advances, and the PSOE maintains its range
Estimate of deputies by NC Report. Absolute majority: 176.
| Candidacy | Previous | Current | Variation of the range |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 141–143 | 138–140 | −3 at both ends |
| PSOE | 100–102 | 100–102 | No change |
| Vox | 64–66 | 66–68 | +2 at both ends |
| Frente Amplio | 8–9 | 9–10 | +1 at both ends |
| Podemos | 1 | 0–1 | May lose its seat |
| Adelante Andalucía | 3 | 2–3 | May lose a seat |
| PP + Vox | 205–209 | 204–208 | −1 at both ends |
Source: NC Report for La Razón. The extremes of the published ranges are compared, not electoral results or direct transfers between parties. The table includes a selection of candidacies and not the full Congress. The subtotal PP + Vox is already included in the rows of both parties.