The Partido Popular would be the leading force in most of the autonomous communities in the general elections on November 29, according to GAD3’s latest poll for ABC.
The poll gives the Partido Popular 136 seats in the Congress as a whole, compared with 103 for the PSOE and 63 for Vox. In the territorial distribution, the popular party would be the leading force in 31 of the 52 constituencies.
The Community of Madrid would be one of its main strongholds in terms of number of representatives. The PP would win 16 MPs, ahead of the PSOE with nine; Vox with eight; Frente Amplio with four; and Podemos with one.
In the Comunitat Valenciana, the popular party would also top the distribution, although with a smaller margin over its competitors. The formation would obtain five seats, compared with four for the PSOE, the four of Vox, and the three of Compromís-Front Valencià.
Catalonia, the Basque Country and the Canary Islands, outside popular leadership
Catalonia would be one of the territories with a more differentiated result compared with the state-wide picture. The PSC would secure 16 of the 32 MPs that are allocated in the community and would place itself as the leading force. In Lleida, the four seats would be distributed among PP, PSC, Junts and ERC, while in Girona the popular party would not achieve representation.
In the Basque Country, EH Bildu would reach seven MPs and would be the most represented force in Biscay and Gipuzkoa. In Álava, on the other hand, there would be a tie of four seats between PP, PSOE, EH Bildu and PNV.
Canary Islands would be the third community identified explicitly among the exceptions to PP leadership. The PSOE would lead the regional result and would be the leading force in the constituency of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. In Las Palmas, the popular and socialist parties would tie in the number of MPs.
Ties and tight seat distributions in several communities
The survey also shows very closely matched results in other territories. In Cantabria, PP and PSOE would obtain two seats each, while Vox would keep the fifth seat. In Navarre, the tie between popular and socialist parties would be repeated, but the last representative would be for EH Bildu.
The two major parties would also share first place in other constituencies, including Soria, Valladolid, Ciudad Real, Badajoz, Huelva and Jaén. In Toledo, Guadalajara, Cuenca and Teruel, the distribution would result in a three-way tie among PP, PSOE and Vox.
The territorial projection proceeds from the breakdown of the GAD3 survey published by ABC. The study was carried out through 1,502 telephone interviews between November 3 and 5 and estimates 136 seats for the PP, 103 for the PSOE, and 63 for Vox.