The polls for the general elections of November 29 offer different results, but their combination makes it possible to summarize the balance of forces. An arithmetic mean of the latest measurements collected from 17 institutes places the PP in first position, with 30.9% of the vote, followed by the PSOE, with 27.3%, and Vox, with 19.1%.
The calculation incorporates surveys and daily follow-ups with a common rule: each firm counts only once. When it has a more recent tracking, that submission replaces its earlier survey. It also includes the CIS, so both the selection and the weighting differ from the usual average of the Demócrata aggregator, which excludes the public body and weights by seniority and sample.
The result in votes: the PP maintains first place
The gap between PP and PSOE stands at 3.5 points before rounding the percentages. The combined total of the popular party and Vox reaches 50.0%: practically half of the estimated vote in this set of studies.
The mean brings together forecasts that are far apart. Among the measurements included are the 33.1% that DYM attributes to the PP, the 33.3% of the PSOE in the CIS, and the 31.6% socialist figure from the last follow-up consulted from SW Demoscopia. Including them with the same weight allows a common reference to be built, but it does not eliminate their methodological differences.
29N general elections: average vote by party
The simple average of the 17 firms collected places the PP at 30.9%, the PSOE at 27.3%, and Vox at 19.1%.
| Party or grouping | Vote share |
|---|---|
| People's Party (PP) | 30.9% |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 27.3% |
| Vox | 19.1% |
| Other candidacies and blank vote* | 22.7% |
Source: editorial calculation based on the latest measurements collected from 17 institutes. Simple arithmetic mean, with one submission per firm and the same weight for all, including the CIS. The trackings replace the previous polls from the same institute.
The result in seats: PP and Vox are close to 195 deputies
Fifteen of the 17 signatures used provide a parliamentary estimate for the three main parties. Their average leaves the PP with 129.8 deputies, the PSOE with 109.8, and Vox with 65.6. The combined total of the Popular Party and Vox reaches 195.4, about 19 above the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
These figures come from averaging the seats published, not from converting the national vote percentage into deputies. When a firm provides a central figure, that estimate is used; when it publishes only a range, its midpoint is taken. The decimals express the result of that operation and do not represent fractions of deputies that could be obtained at the polls.
The main parliamentary conclusion is that the combined total of PP and Vox continues to be above the absolute majority in this combination of studies. That does not mean that all the institutes predict that outcome: the latest tracking consulted from SW Demoscopia puts both at 173 deputies, while 40dB. assigns them 189.
General elections of 29N: average seats by party
The 15 available projections place the combined PP and Vox total at an average of 195.4 deputies. The absolute majority of the Congress is 176.
| Party or grouping | Average seats |
|---|---|
| Popular Party (PP)* | 129.8 |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 109.8 |
| Vox | 65.6 |
| Remainder of candidacies** | 44.8 |
| Subtotal PP + Vox* | 195.4 |
| Threshold for absolute majority | 176 |
Source: editorial calculation based on 15 available projections for PP, PSOE and Vox.
Comparison with 23J: Vox concentrates the growth of the right
With respect to the 2023 general elections, the average reflects a reversal for the two major parties and a growth for Vox. Using percentages rounded to one decimal place, the PP goes from 33,1% to 30,9%, the PSOE from 31,7% to 27,3%, and Vox from 12,4% to 19,1%. The changes are −2,2, −4,4, and +6,7 points, respectively.
In parliamentary representation, the average places the PP about seven MPs below its 137 from 23J and the PSOE about eleven below the 121 it achieved then. Vox appears to be close to doubling its 33 representatives. The advance of Santiago Abascal’s party offsets, in this joint photograph, the loss of seats for the Popular Party.
Comparison with 23J: changes in vote and seats
Compared with the 2023 elections, the average places PP 2.2 points below and PSOE 4.4 points below. Vox increases by 6.7 points.
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| Party | 23J vote | 29N average vote | Change in percentage points | 23J seats | 29N average seats | Seat difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP* | 33,1% | 30,9% | −2,2 | 137 | 129,8 | −7,2 |
| PSOE | 31,7% | 27,3% | −4,4 | 121 | 109,8 | −11,2 |
| Vox | 12,4% | 19,1% | +6,7 | 33 | 65,6 | +32,6 |
Sources: results of the 2023 general elections and editorial calculation on the measurements compiled for 29N. The vote average uses 17 institutes and the seats average uses 15. Vote differences are calculated based on the percentages shown, rounded to one decimal place.
How this average has been calculated
The selection brings together 40dB., Sigma Dos, SW Demoscopia, Winston, SocioMétrica, DYM, IMOP, GAD3, Ateneo del Dato, NC Report, Sondaxe, Data10, Celeste-Tel, Target Point, Hamalgama Métrica, More in Common and the CIS. A single measurement per institute is used from among the collected data, with the same weight for each firm, without correcting any possible biases and without incorporating reestimates that are unrelated such as independent surveys.
The breakdown is limited to PP, PSOE and Vox because the other candidacies do not appear grouped uniformly in all the studies. Frente Amplio, its territorial coalitions and Podemos require additional harmonization in order to obtain comparable individual averages. That is why they are presented within the rest, rather than attributing to them artificially precise figures.