Marine Le Pen consolidates as the clear favorite for the 2027 French presidential elections. The latest poll conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published this Saturday, October 17, places the leader of National Rally (RN) at 31.5% of voting intention in one of the analyzed scenarios, well ahead of her main competitors. The study also outlines a tight race for second place among three candidates from different political families: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from La France Insoumise (LFI); Édouard Philippe, from Horizons; and Raphaël Glucksmann, winner of the socialist primaries.
According to the data published by Electomanía, Mélenchon and Philippe tie with 15.5% of support, while Glucksmann is just half a point behind, with 15%. The three candidates appear separated by a minimal distance, while Le Pen enjoys a 16-point lead over her closest pursuers. The scenario confirms the electoral strength of the French radical right and highlights the difficulties faced by left and center parties in concentrating their support around a candidacy capable of competing with the RN.
The poll comes six months before the French presidential elections, scheduled for the spring of 2027, and shows a particularly open landscape in the fight for second place. Unlike other European electoral systems, in France the two most voted candidates in the first round advance to a second round if neither obtains an absolute majority, so the narrow difference between Mélenchon, Philippe, and Glucksmann could be decisive in determining who ultimately faces Marine Le Pen.
Le Pen reaches 31.5% and doubles the support of her main rivals
The main conclusion of the study is the wide advantage of National Rally over the rest of the candidacies. In the scenario highlighted by Electomanía, Marine Le Pen obtains 31.5% of the votes, compared to 15.5% for Mélenchon and Philippe and 15% for Glucksmann. This means that the RN leader achieves nearly double the backing of any of the three candidates competing to accompany her in the second round.
The advantage remains in the different configurations examined by Elabe. According to the original study by the polling firm, Le Pen fluctuates between 31% and 33.5% of voting intention, depending on the candidates included in each scenario. Although these figures represent a slight setback of between one and 1.5 points compared to August, the leader maintains a clearly dominant position in the race for the Élysée.
The survey also reflects the loyalty of her electorate. Around eight out of ten voters who express their intention to go to the polls and support her maintain their preference for Le Pen, while the candidate manages to attract between 20% and 25% of those who voted for The Republicans (LR) in previous elections. This ability to mobilize and capture voters from the traditional right constitutes one of the main assets of National Rally.
However, the advantage in the first round does not guarantee a definitive electoral victory. The French presidential system requires competing later in a second round, where vote transfers between parties and a different mobilization of the electorate can occur. Elabe has also studied these possible confrontations, with results placing Le Pen ahead, although with very different margins depending on her rival.
Triple tie between Mélenchon, Philippe, and Glucksmann: the battle to face Le Pen
The fight for second place constitutes the most significant data from the survey. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, and Raphaël Glucksmann appear practically tied, with differences that fall within the margins of error of the study. In one of the six configurations analyzed, Mélenchon and Philippe obtain 15.5% and Glucksmann reaches 15%, a scenario that leaves the classification for the second round completely open.
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister during Emmanuel Macron's presidency and leader of Horizons, represents one of the main alternatives in the centrist space. Elabe attributes him between 15.5% and 16.5% of voting intention when he runs as the sole representative of the central bloc, a position that significantly improves compared to that of Gabriel Attal, another of the leaders aspiring to represent macronism. In fact, when both appear simultaneously in the survey, Philippe obtains 13.5% and Attal is reduced to 4.5%.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon consolidates his position between 15% and 16%, a range that represents an improvement of between one and two points compared to the previous poll. The leader of La France Insoumise benefits from a greater mobilization of his supporters, although he continues to face rejection from a considerable part of the voters from the center and moderate left.
For his part, Raphaël Glucksmann is one of the candidates experiencing a more favorable evolution. After winning the socialist left primaries, the leader reaches between 15% and 16.5% of support, which represents a growth of between 2.5 and four points compared to August, depending on the scenario. His advance is explained, according to Elabe, by a recovery of the progressive vote and by his ability to attract part of the centrist electorate.
This situation turns the battle for second place into a competition between three differentiated projects: Mélenchon's left, Glucksmann's social democracy, and Philippe's centrism. The fragmentation means that none can individually approach the support of Marine Le Pen, despite the fact that all three have significant pools of voters.
The results correspond to one of the six combinations of candidates considered by Elabe, so they should not be interpreted as a definitive distribution of the vote among parties. The survey measures citizens' preferences for specific names and their percentages vary when the candidates listed on the ballot are modified.
The study does not offer a projection of seats, something that does not directly correspond to a presidential election either. Its objective is to estimate the support for the candidacies in the first round and analyze the possible subsequent confrontations between the candidates with the most support.
The left adds more votes than Le Pen, but presents itself divided
One of the political conclusions that can be drawn from the survey is the combined weight of the left parties, although their voters are distributed among different candidacies. In the analyzed scenario, La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Greens, and the Communist Party sum up to 34.5% of voting intention, three points more than Marine Le Pen alone.
Nevertheless, this sum does not equate to an automatic backing for a joint candidacy. The political and strategic differences between Mélenchon and Glucksmann are significant, especially on European, economic, and relations with the rest of the progressive formations issues. Furthermore, the electoral behavior could change considerably if either of these parties were to renounce presenting a candidate.
The division between Mélenchon, with 15.5%, and Glucksmann, with 15%, constitutes one of the main obstacles for the French left. Both compete to access a second round in which, according to Elabe's data, their chances against Marine Le Pen would be very different. While Glucksmann could contest the presidency with a relatively small difference, the study attributes a considerable disadvantage to Mélenchon.
The fragmentation also affects the center and traditional right. Horizons and The Republicans total 22% in the analyzed configuration, although that figure cannot be automatically transferred to the result of a unified candidacy. The presence of figures like Gabriel Attal or David Lisnard adds new variables to the competition for the moderate and conservative electorate.
Le Pen would also win the second round, according to Elabe
The study is not limited to first-round voting intentions. Elabe has also examined what would happen if Marine Le Pen faced her three main competitors in the final round, and in all scenarios, the leader of National Rally appears as the winner.
The closest difference would occur against Édouard Philippe, who would obtain 47.5%, compared to 52.5% for Le Pen. It would be a confrontation with a five-point difference, in which the former prime minister would manage to attract some of the votes coming from the left and the traditional right.
In a hypothetical duel against Raphaël Glucksmann, the RN leader would reach 53.5% of the votes, while the socialist candidate would remain at 46.5%. The distance would be seven points, although the study suggests that Glucksmann could benefit from a significant part of the centrist electorate and some voters from the moderate right.
The most unfavorable scenario for the opposition to Le Pen would be a second round against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In that case, the candidate of National Rally would win with 69% of the votes, compared to 31% of the leader of La France Insoumise. Elabe attributes this difference to Mélenchon's difficulty in attracting support from other political sectors and to a possible high abstention among center and socialist voters.
These results reflect only the declared preferences at the time of the survey. The evolution of the campaign, the electoral debates, and the mobilization of voters can considerably modify the scenarios before the election date.
46% of voters could change their mind before the presidential elections
Despite Le Pen's current advantage, the poll also reveals a high degree of uncertainty among the French electorate. According to Elabe, 46% of people expressing an intention to vote acknowledge that they could change their choice before the 2027 elections, five points more than in the same period prior to the previous presidential elections.
The polling company estimates that this percentage could represent between 16 and 17 million undecided voters, if participation were similar to that recorded in 2022. The uncertainty particularly affects the candidacies situated between the ecological left and traditional right, while Le Pen and Mélenchon voters show greater loyalty to their current preferences.
Interest in the elections is also high. 71% of the French claim to follow the upcoming presidential campaign with interest, and 32% say they are very interested. These data reflect the political importance of a call that will come after ten years of Emmanuel Macron's presidency, who cannot run for a third consecutive term.
The survey was conducted through online interviews carried out between October 14 and 16, 2026, on a sample of 1,701 adults residing in metropolitan France, of which 1,553 were registered in the electoral roll. For the voting estimates, only the registered respondents who expressed an intention to go to the polls were taken into account. The margin of error of the estimates ranges from 1.2 to 2.8 percentage points, depending on the analyzed result.
Elabe also has a rating of 7.4 out of 10 in the PollCheck of Electomanía, a classification of the reliability of polling companies developed by this medium based on their results in different electoral processes.
France faces a presidential election with a clear favorite and three challengers
Six months before the elections, Marine Le Pen appears as the main beneficiary of the fragmentation of the French political system. Her advantage in voting intention places the RN in a privileged position to access the second round, while the rest of the forces compete to gather enough support to contest the Presidency.
The three-way tie between Mélenchon, Philippe, and Glucksmann is, for now, the main unknown of an electoral race in which the composition of the candidacies and possible political agreements can alter the results. The advance of the socialist candidate, the stability of the former prime minister, and the recovery of the leader of La France Insoumise anticipate a particularly intense competition in the coming months.
Elabe thus depicts a France divided between the leadership of the radical right and a fragmented opposition that still does not have a clearly positioned candidate to challenge for the Élysée. And although Le Pen starts with a wide advantage, the high percentage of voters who admit they could change their vote reminds us that the outcome of the 2027 presidential election remains open.