November will begin with a change in the weather that will not be felt equally throughout Spain. Aemet's forecast for the week from November 2 to 8 paints a country with important differences: temperatures more in line with the season in the north and the Balearic Islands and an environment that is still relatively warm in the southern peninsula and the Canary Islands.
The agency also foresees nighttime frosts in inland areas. The scenario makes it possible to speak of a more noticeable arrival of cold in certain territories, but not of a generalized cold wave in Spain. Precipitation will also be unevenly distributed, with greater prominence in the Mediterranean area and the Balearic Islands. (aemetblog.es)
When the drop in temperatures will begin to be felt
The most relevant horizon is the first full week of November. To know when the drop will occur in a specific locality, the municipal forecast is more useful than the weekly trend map.
Madrid offers an example of that evolution. In the forecast consulted, Aemet places the maximum at 19 degrees on Monday, November 2, compared with 15 on Tuesday and 14 on Wednesday. The minima go from 8 degrees on Monday to 7 on Wednesday.
It is a noticeable drop during the day, although those values cannot be automatically transferred to the rest of the Community of Madrid or to the entire plateau. Altitude, cloud cover and the situation of each municipality modify the forecast temperatures.
Where there will be the greatest contrast when leaving home
To prepare a trip, it is advisable to look separately at the minimum and the maximum. A relatively mild afternoon may be preceded by a cold dawn, especially inland.
Aemet's mountain forecast for this Saturday already foresees the possibility of light frosts in the Lozoya valley, in a predominantly clear context. It is an example of why the temperature of a capital does not necessarily describe what happens in the valleys and high areas of its province.
Those who leave early, return at night, or plan to spend several hours outdoors should check the hourly interval of their activity. Looking only at the day’s maximum can give an incomplete impression of the conditions they will encounter.
Rainfall will have a different distribution than the cold
The weekly trend concentrates the heaviest precipitation in the peninsular Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, and foresees showers in the Canary Islands. At the northern end, on the other hand, rainfall could end up being scarcer than usual for these dates.
That an area has temperatures close to normal does not mean it will register an extreme episode. Likewise, a forecast of rain for several days does not amount to a warning for adverse phenomena: warnings must be consulted specifically and with their validity period.
What can already be known about the rest of November
Aemet introduces more uncertainty from the second week onward. For the period from 9 to 15 November, the initial trend once again favors temperatures above the usual ones, although it may change with the following updates. (aemetblog.es)
For this reason, the drop in the first days does not make it possible to anticipate an entire cold November. Nor does a relatively warm seasonal forecast rule out days of low temperatures.
Before traveling, the useful check consists of combining three consultations: the forecast for the municipality, the hourly details and the active warnings. That information makes it possible to decide what clothes to bring and how to organize the trip with more precision than a single headline about the arrival of winter.