The Ibex 35 recorded a decline of 1.18% by mid-session this Thursday, down to 18,892.70 points, in a day conditioned by the global pressure of sovereign debt, the rise in oil prices, and the publication of the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed), released last night after the closure of European markets.
According to these minutes, the majority of participants in the Fed's September meeting considered that a new increase in interest rates would be "appropriate" before the end of this year, which keeps open the possibility of another upward move before the end of 2026.
Nonetheless, the officials of the U.S. central bank clarified that they will approach each meeting with an "open mindset" and that future decisions will depend on the data that becomes available and how this affects economic forecasts and the balance of risks.
In this line, "The probability of an additional increase in October remains at 20% (it was at 70% just after the meeting) and pending the next CPI data for September that we will know next week," point out the analysts from Renta 4, who remain very attentive to the evolution of inflation.
At the same time, markets continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East due to its impact on crude oil prices, which already exceed 103 dollars per barrel amid fears of a new escalation of tensions between the United States (USA) and Iran.
Various reports indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed the Pentagon to prepare possible attack plans against the Islamic Republic to execute them before the midterm elections.
Meanwhile, attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue, a route through which, before the outbreak of the conflict, approximately a quarter of the oil and gas traded in the world passed. This strategic corridor has been suffering from Iran's blockade for weeks and a broader one driven by the USA.
An Iranian spokesperson has denounced that navigation in the area has been "interrupted by the evils of the USA," insisting that security in Hormuz is of greater relevance to Tehran than to any other actor involved.
In this context, the Brent barrel, a reference in Europe, was advancing 4.22% at midday in the stock markets of the Old Continent, up to 104.43 dollars. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a reference in the US, was rising 4.19%, up to 91.98 dollars per barrel.
Within the Spanish Stock Exchange, the most bullish values at midday were Repsol (+2.06%), Enagás (+1.48%), Endesa (+1.07%) and Naturgy (+0.95%). On the opposite side, IAG led the declines (-3.15%), followed by ArcelorMittal (-3.09%), Aena (-2.68%) and Banco Santander (-2.61%).
The main European indices were also painted red around 12:00 hours: the British FTSE 100 fell 0.40%, the French Cac 40 0.84%, the German Dax 0.79%, the Italian FTSE MIB 1.29% and the Euro Stoxx 50 1.12%.
In the debt market, the yield of the Spanish 10-year bond was at 4.163%, above the 4.107% recorded at the close on Wednesday, which raised the risk premium over the German bond to 64.37 basis points.
In the foreign exchange market, the euro was down 0.15% against the dollar, trading in the markets at 1.1180 "greenbacks".