The first thing is, and although it may seem contradictory, that the agreement between PP and Vox sealed in Mérida partially deactivates and activates the framework of the "useful vote" on which the Andalusian PP sustained its absolute majority, it stops the hemorrhage of Vox towards Juanma Moreno and leaves the PSOE of María Jesús Montero with no real room to capitalize on the offensive.
Thirty days exactly before Andalusia goes to the polls, the electoral board has changed without a single vote having been cast yet. The government pact signed this week between María Guardiola's PP and Santiago Abascal's Vox in Extremadura - which will most likely be extrapolated to Aragon and Castilla y León - alters the balance of power with which Juanma Moreno faced his re-election. And it does so at the most delicate point for San Telmo: the exact edge of the 55 seats that separate absolute majority from dependence on Abascal.
The Andalusian president himself has been admitting it for weeks in interviews: the difference between governing alone or being forced to make pacts lies in about 15,000 votes out of the million and a half that the PP handles. That margin, distributed by provinces, decides one or two seats in the distribution of remainders. And that is where the Extremaduran agreement begins to weigh.
What changes with Mérida
Until Thursday, Moreno had a round electoral framework: "stability or mess". The "mess" was the blockades of Extremadura, Aragón and Castilla y León, with negotiations stuck for months and threats of repeat elections. That narrative fueled the transfer of votes from Vox to the PP among the more pragmatic voters, those who penalized Abascal for obstructing governments.
Here are two readings: with the pact signed, that argument loses strength. Vox is no longer the party that blocks: it is the party that enters the Extremaduran government with a vice-presidency and two ministries, the one that imposes a narrative -"national priority", "Spaniards first"- even though Génova has limited its legal effects, and the one that can tell its doubtful voter that voting for it does serve to change policies.
Abascal made it clear the same Friday on X: "Andalusians can clearly see the things that would begin to change with Vox". And his number two, Ignacio Garriga, framed the agreement in a "national context" extrapolable to all territories where the PP depends on Vox.
At the same time, and as the Andalusian Popular Party has rightly placed on the political market, it offers a clear portrait of what would happen in Andalusia if Moreno does not achieve an absolute majority and, therefore, can send a powerful signal to the electorate to bet on the useful moderate vote, on which the Andalusian PP is basing its campaign.
The photo of the polls one month before 17-M
The three most recent polls agree on a knife-edge scenario, with Moreno on the verge of an absolute majority: IMOP places him between 53 and 55 seats. Only in the most favorable scenario does he retain it. CENTRA and Sigma Dos are somewhat more optimistic, but neither takes him out of the margin of error regarding the 55 needed.
In all of them, however, Vox grows compared to 2022 - from 13.5% to around 15% - but well below its performance in Castilla y León -18.9%-, Aragón -17.8%- or what the December polls gave them (17.5%). There is a ceiling, but also room for growth.
For its part, the PSOE-A plummets to historic lows. Montero closes the valuation table with a 3.3 - 30% of respondents give him an absolute zero - compared to Moreno's 5.5. The candidacy is not connecting and this data is relevant to focus on what we may see in the polls next week, when the Extremadura agreement 'lands' in the Andalusian framework.
How the pact affects each party
PP: loses the "useful vote" argument, gains anti-Vox ammunition
The pact complicates things for Moreno on one flank and helps him on another. On the one hand, it deflates the Vox-PP transfer that was inflating his voting intention: the right-wing voter who was hesitant no longer has the excuse of obstruction to punish Abascal. On the other hand, it gives him a tangible - no longer hypothetical - argument to stir up "fear of Vox" among the centrist voter who migrated from the PSOE in 2022. Hence the tactical shift detected this week: the Andalusian PP is mentioning Vox more than the left itself.
It is no coincidence that Feijóo will campaign in Andalusia practically separately from Moreno. The Andalusian president needs to shield the "Andalusian way" - government alone, stability, dialogue - from the party's national drift. On Friday, Moreno distanced himself from the agreement but made it clear, both he and Ayuso in Madrid, that they were separating from it. This is very relevant.
Which side will the 'toast' fall on? Three things to look at here, supported in two cases by hard data and in the third by 'soft' data. The first: Moreno's approval rating compared to Montero's is very high and the difference is abysmal. This may indicate that when in doubt, moderate progressivism will opt for Moreno to stop Vox. The second: Hungary. If the center wants to 'stop' Vox, it has an easier time using a vehicle that can win and reinforce it - Moreno - rather than supporting a candidate who is sinking in the polls and has no chance of winning. And a third piece of data: the aggressiveness of Macarena Olona's candidacy in 2022 was what decided Moreno's absolute majority. This may indicate that Andalusian sociology will always favor 'friendly' and 'stable' options over the more aggressive stance of Abascal's party. Therefore, Moreno will take the 'prize' again.
Vox: stops the bleeding, consolidates 18-20 seats
For Abascal, Mérida is a lifeline. Data indicated that up to 3 out of 10 Vox voters in 2022 could transfer their support to the PP due to frustration with the blockade. The pact could stop this leak. With the argument "we are useful, we enter governments, we change policies," Vox can retain the doubtful voter and aim for the high end of its range (19-20 seats), especially in Almería, Granada, and Jaén, where the migratory narrative has more traction.
The risk for Vox is the inverse: the hardest voter may perceive programmatic concessions and abstain. But the net balance should be positive and withstand the 'pull' in an adverse scenario compared to the frustrated expectations in Castilla y León.
PSOE-A: rhetorical ammunition, without conversion capacity
Here come curves. On one hand, the Extremaduran agreement gives the PSOE the "PP=Vox" framework that worked on 23-J 2023, when the 2023 regional pacts mobilized the progressive abstainer in the general elections. In addition to the strength of 'validating' its rhetoric. But in Andalusia, this mechanism has three severe limitations:
1. Montero bears the weariness of Sánchez and has a very tough rejection ceiling.
2. The flight from PSOE-A is already consummated: 257,839 voters from 2022 have gone to PP, Vox, and the radical left.
3. Montero has already oriented the campaign against the 'moderate' Moreno: the electoral focus is more on health management and public services than on national politics, so distancing oneself from it may be confusing.
Although Pedro Sánchez will be in Huelva this weekend and will bring up the issue and try to bring the national focus back to the campaign, the mechanism is complex due to the contradiction.
There is indeed a positive fact in all of this for Montero's party: abstention. The validation of the general socialist political framework may lead the left-wing voter to prioritize reinforcing the largest candidacy in that political spectrum as a mechanism to minimize damage in the face of a potential entry of Vox into the Andalusian government.
In this way, the reasonable projection is that the PSOE can contain the fall and remain in the 23-25% range, similar to 2022 and that Montero politically needs, but hardly reverse the situation. The election is not played between PSOE and PP.
For Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía: electoral ammunition
Here is good news for the so-called 'left of the left' or alternative left: they can face a slightly positive balance, simply because the framework of confrontation with Vox suits them well for mobilization. The concept is the identity left and the result can be 1 additional seat of those that 'dance' in any province.
The most likely scenario on 17-M
Before the Mérida pact, looking at the polls, the probability that Moreno would renew the absolute majority clean was around 60%. Now the risk of a slight movement to one side or the other is even more extreme and there is more difficulty in glimpsing it.
With everything up in the air, it will be the electoral debates, the abstentionists, and the mobilization of young voters and first-time voters that set the tone, considering that the latter were dancing in polls between the PP and Vox. Moreno's absolute is closer and further away than ever, and we will see in the next polls, after the Mérida pact occurred at a critical moment as the vote in Andalusia was already being formed, how it will land with the Andalusian electorate.