Brazil celebrates this Sunday October 4 the first round of presidential elections whose first results have begun to be known thousands of kilometers from the country. The time difference has allowed the polls to close in Asia and Oceania much earlier than in Brazilian territory, and the bulletins published by the different sections already offer a first snapshot of the foreign vote: Lula, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and current president, has come out ahead in Australia, while Flávio Bolsonaro, candidate of the Liberal Party (PL), has obtained a wide lead in Japan.
These results must be interpreted with caution. They are data from the polling station bulletins issued at the end of voting, but the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will not begin to officially disclose the totalization of the presidential election until 5:00 PM Brasilia time, which is 10:00 PM in mainland Spain. In addition, Brazilians registered abroad represent a small part of the national electorate: 918,876 people are eligible to vote outside Brazil in 186 cities, and they only participate in the election of president and vice president.
Lula obtains 53.98% in Australia
In Australia, Lula has received 4,562 votes, 53.98%, according to the sum of the bulletins released after the polls closed. Flávio Bolsonaro has remained at 2,579 votes, equivalent to 30.52%, with a difference of 1,983 ballots between the two. Augusto Cury appears in third position with 329 votes, followed by Renan Santos with 316.
The Brazilian president has also come out ahead in other polling stations that have already finished voting. In New Zealand he obtained 234 votes, 70.48% of the valid votes, compared to 64 for Flávio Bolsonaro, which is 19.28%. In South Korea, Lula reached 56.94% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro 33.33%, while in Singapore the available bulletins gave the PT candidate 190 votes compared to 92 for the PL candidate.
In China, the sum of the bulletins from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong also places Lula ahead, with 367 valid votes, 56.29%, compared to 203 for Bolsonaro, 31.13%. The territorial distribution was not uniform: Lula led the vote in the three cities of mainland China included in the count, while Flávio Bolsonaro was the most voted in Hong Kong.
Flávio Bolsonaro achieves a wide lead in Japan
The result changes dramatically in Japan, one of the main hubs of the Brazilian electorate abroad. The sum of the 119 ballot boxes corresponding to Tokyo, Nagoya, and Hamamatsu gives Flávio Bolsonaro 24,601 votes, compared to the 5,234 obtained by Lula. The PL candidate achieved 67.1% of the total number of people who went to vote, and if only valid votes are counted, his percentage rises to 73.4%.
Bolsonaro was ahead in all three Japanese electoral jurisdictions. A total of 36,627 of the 88,293 eligible Brazilians went to vote, resulting in a turnout of 58.52%. The ballots also account for 1,441 blank votes and 868 null votes. Japan is particularly relevant within the overseas vote due to the size of its Brazilian community, although its results still represent a very small fraction compared to the more than 158 million voters called to the polls across the country.
Bolsonaro also wins in the Philippines
The Philippines is the other country among the first counts where Flávio Bolsonaro has come out ahead. The PL candidate received 33 of the 62 valid votes, 53.23%, compared to Lula's 26, equivalent to 41.94%. The sample is, however, very small: only 63 people went to vote and the abstention exceeded 72%.
The initial data thus shows very different behaviors depending on the country. Lula leads the known ballots in Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore, and the analyzed set from China; Flávio Bolsonaro does so in Japan and the Philippines. This does not allow for extrapolating a result for Brazil: the profile of Brazilians residing in each country is different and the overseas vote accounts for just over half a percentage point of the national census.
Why results are known before voting closes in Brazil
The explanation lies in the time zones. The elections take place between 8:00 AM and 5:00 PM local time in each constituency, so countries like New Zealand, Australia, or Japan finish voting many hours before Brazil. Once each electronic ballot box is closed, a report is generated with the result of that section, which can be consulted before the TSE activates the disclosure of the presidential totalization.
The Electoral Justice maintains, however, a unique schedule to begin publishing the official sum of the votes for president: 5:00 PM Brasília time. Until then, the numbers circulating correspond to the aggregation of individual bulletins and may have different scopes depending on how many sections have been incorporated in each country.
The election will continue until the closing of the Brazilian polls
More than 158 million citizens are called this Sunday to elect a president, governors, senators, and deputies. Lula seeks reelection for the PT and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, competes for the PL along with other presidential candidates. To win this Sunday, it is necessary to surpass 50% of valid votes; if no candidate reaches that figure, the two most voted will contest a second round on October 25.
For now, the data from Australia and Japan serve mainly as the first concrete results of a long electoral day: Lula has obtained a lead of more than 23 points over Flávio Bolsonaro among those who voted in Australia, while the PL candidate has achieved a much greater difference in his favor among the Brazilian electorate in Japan. The result that will determine the course of the election, however, will begin to be known when the TSE opens the national tally this afternoon.