Latvia votes this Saturday with Russia literally on the other side of the border. The Baltic country, a member of the European Union and NATO, is holding elections for its 15th Saeima, the unicameral Parliament of 100 seats, after a few particularly tumultuous months in which drones related to the war in Ukraine even caused the fall of the previous Government. The polling stations opened at 8:00 AM and will close at 8:00 PM, one hour earlier in mainland Spain, with the first results expected during the night.
Security has taken up a good part of a campaign in which the Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, of the centrist United List, calls for strengthening defense and maintaining support for Kiev, while other parties demand reducing or stopping aid to Ukraine and concentrating resources on internal problems. In addition to concerns about Russia, inflation and the cost of living are particularly sensitive in a country of around 1.9 million inhabitants that shares borders with both Russia and Belarus.
The drones that caused a Government to fall
The campaign does not speak of drones in the abstract. In May, the then Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned after a political crisis caused by the authorities' response to several air incursions. Two Ukrainian military drones that had come from Russian territory penetrated Latvian airspace without being detected by the Army and ended up exploding at oil storage facilities. Siliņa held Defense Minister Andris Sprūds responsible for not having advanced sufficiently in anti-drone systems and dismissed him; Sprūds' party, The Progressives, later withdrew its support for the Executive and the coalition lost its majority.
The crisis led to the arrival of Kulbergs' Government, a former racing driver and until then a deputy of United List. The Parliament approved a new coalition led by him along with New Unity, National Alliance, and the Union of Greens and Farmers at the end of May. Just four months later, Kulbergs now faces the polls seeking a mandate of his own for the next four years.
The aerial incidents have also fueled a broader discussion about to what extent the country is prepared to face the indirect consequences of a war being fought a few hundred kilometers away. Kulbergs has promised to reinforce drone capabilities and maintain defense spending around 5% of GDP, one of the highest percentages within NATO.
NATO reinforces Latvian sky during elections
The concern is not limited to the Government of Riga. NATO has temporarily reinforced the protection of Latvian airspace coinciding with the elections and Germany has deployed four Eurofighter jets for approximately a week, according to Associated Press. The measure comes in a context of growing unease in the eastern flank countries over drones, sabotage, cyberattacks, and other forms of pressure that European authorities include within the concept of hybrid threat.
The Latvian State Security Service, however, pointed out before the voting that it had not detected significant or systematic attempts by Russia or other actors to influence in favor of a specific party or candidate. This caution is relevant because the concern over possible external interference has been part of the political debate, but it does not equate to the authorities having accredited a manipulation operation of these elections.
Moscow, for its part, rejects the accusations that it is preparing an aggression against NATO and considers them unfounded. Latvian authorities and other Baltic governments maintain that they must prepare for possible provocations and hybrid threats, while Russia has accused the Alliance of increasing tensions at its borders.
Ukraine also divides the campaign
Support for Ukraine constitutes one of the main dividing lines between the parties. Kulbergs has defended continuing to provide support to Kiev and has stated that Ukraine must receive the necessary resources to improve its position against Russia. United List appeared with a 14.4% voting intention in the SKDS/LSM survey conducted between September 4 and 16, although the poll showed a very fragmented scenario and a high proportion of undecided people or those declaring that they would not go to vote. The survey is a snapshot prior to the election day and not a result or a definitive forecast.
The second force in that measurement was Sovereign Power & Alliance of Young Latvians, with 9.4%. The formation was born around leaders who left another party after refusing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and seeks a significant part of its support among the Russian-speaking population. Its leader, Julia Stepanenko, argues that Latvia should stop financing the war and dedicate more resources to internal issues, although she claims that Ukraine should prevail through peace negotiations.
Very close was Latvia First, with 9.2%, led by businessman Ainars Šlesers. The formation formally condemns the Russian invasion but has hardened its criticism of Latvian economic support to Kiev in recent months and has sought to broaden its backing among Russian-speaking voters. The Progressives, National Alliance, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and New Unity, among other formations, also compete.
The Russian-speaking minority, another key to the debate
The relationship with Russia also has an internal dimension. Latvia hosts a significant Russian-speaking community, whose political positioning is not homogeneous. Reuters points out that part of these citizens rejects or feels uncomfortable with the invasion of Ukraine, while others criticize the policies adopted in recent years to reduce the weight of Russian in certain areas of public life and believe they receive discriminatory treatment.
The war has accelerated policies aimed at reinforcing the use of Latvian and reducing the cultural and political influence of Moscow, decisions that have support among sectors that consider them necessary for national security, but that have also caused tensions within the Russian-speaking population. Several parties are competing precisely for those votes with very different approaches to Ukraine, relations with the Kremlin, and national identity.
Security versus cost of living
Despite the weight of the war, the ballots do not revolve exclusively around Russia. The cost of living and the economic situation have also had a prominent presence in the campaign. Some opposition parties argue that the increase in military spending and aid to Ukraine are sidelining internal needs, while Kulbergs links both debates and argues that a strong economy is necessary to sustain a strong defense.
The SKDS/LSM survey published before the elections also reflected considerable disaffection: approximately one third of those surveyed were undecided or stated that they had no intention of voting. In addition, there is a very fragmented parliamentary system, with a minimum threshold of 5% of the votes to obtain representation. A total of 14 candidacies are competing, and the votes of the parties that do not reach that limit can significantly alter the final distribution of the 100 seats.
Almost 1.56 million voters and 100 seats
The Central Electoral Commission has called on citizens to elect deputies for a term of four years. Latvia is divided for these elections into five constituencies: Riga, with 38 seats; Vidzeme, with 26; Zemgale, with 13; Latgale, with 12; and Kurzeme, with 11. Citizens residing abroad vote for the candidacies corresponding to Riga.
About 1.56 million people have the right to participate, according to Associated Press. The polling stations remain open until 8:00 PM local time, and the Electoral Commission expects that the counting will allow knowing during the night how the new Saeima is configured.
An election on the eastern border of Europe
The voting comes at a time of special tension for the Baltic countries. Latvia is one of the European states geographically most exposed to Russia and Belarus and has been, along with Estonia and Lithuania, one of the most constant defenders of support for Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale invasion in 2022. Incidents with drones have now transferred part of that war into its own airspace and have made the ability to detect and neutralize unmanned devices a directly electoral issue.
The result will determine the composition of Parliament and, from there, the negotiations to form a Government. Russia, Ukraine, and defense occupy a central part of the debate, but voters also decide on salaries, prices, public services, and national identity. This combination explains an election in which the war is not fought within Latvia, but its political and security consequences are present in practically the entire campaign.