The National Party of New Zealand’s current prime minister, Christopher Luxon, and the Labour Party of the former officeholder Chris Hipkins are contesting, vote by vote, the victory in the general elections held this Saturday, elections in which the centrist Opportunity Party (Opportunity), led by Qiulae Wong, could become a key piece in shaping the next Executive.
Chris Hipkins’ Labour Party has positioned itself as the most voted-for force with 29.4% and 36 seats, slightly ahead of the National Party, which gets 29.2% of the ballots, but translates into 42 deputies. With this distribution, both blocs are forced to negotiate with other formations in order to try to secure a stable majority.
Luxon’s party will try to rely on ACT, which adds 10.9% and 13 deputies, and on NZP, with 9.8% and 12 representatives, which would raise its bloc to 61 seats, still below the 67 needed to renew the current governing coalition and ensure control of the House.
On the other side, the Labourists aspire to weave an alliance with the Green Party (13.3% and 16 seats) and the Māori party Te Pati Maori (0.6% and 5 seats), a scenario that would leave the Opportunity Party, with 6% of the votes and 7 deputies, as the decisive arbiter to tip the balance toward one or the other bloc.
"National is once again the largest party in Parliament and we have a way to form the next government, but I have to tell you right now that it is too tight," Luxon explained in his first remarks after the final result became known.
He also expressed the "incredible honor" he feels for the support his party has received at the polls. "I’ve received a lot of energy," he added.
For his part, the Labour leader, Chris Hipkins, acknowledged that "we may take a little longer to know exactly" the result. "Every vote counts and they all have to be counted," he said before calling on the commitment of all political parties "to work together and look for common ground."
The scrutiny is conditioned by the so-called 'overhang' or excess representation, a feature of New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system that could raise the House from the usual 120 seats to a maximum of 131, setting the absolute majority at 66 seats.
In this context, Nacional and Te Pati Maori could obtain more representatives per constituencies than they would be entitled to based on their vote percentage in the national lists.
In the case of the Conservatives, the first projections even came to exclude from Parliament historical figures such as the Minister of Finance, Nicola Willis, and the Speaker of the House, Gerry Brownlee.
Greens hit out at the electoral system
In the progressive bloc, the co-leader of the Greens, Chloe Swarbrick, has warned that "the system has been manipulated" and has called for a constitutional debate on how New Zealand's democracy works.
Although she has admitted that her party starts from a complicated position in order to enter Government, she has stressed that "it is too early to sing victory" due to the special votes that are still pending count.
Swarbrick has also questioned the changes introduced by Luxon's Executive to the electoral registration rules, assuring that some people encountered difficulties registering and exercising their right to vote, while also stating that the Government "lied" about the reasons for those measures and that uncertainty and legislative amendments have influenced the outcome of the election.
Since the formation, they have also defended their work during the campaign and criticized the outgoing Executive's handling. "New Zealanders deserve something better," they have ruled, asserting a policy capable of overcoming divisions.
The contest represents a test for Luxon, whose party has not entirely dispelled doubts about its ability to ease the cost of living and reactivate the economy. At the same time, Chris Hipkins' Labour has not managed to consolidate itself as a sufficient alternative, while a significant part of the electorate has chosen to strengthen minor parties.