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LIMASSOL, Cyprus, October 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- On November 3, the political and financial focus will be on the United States legislative elections, in which all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate will be renewed. These midterm elections will be decisive in setting the course for the remainder of President Donald Trump's term, an aspect that has attracted the attention of analysts and investors in recent weeks.
At present, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House of Representatives compared with Democrats' 214, while in the Senate they maintain a majority of 53 to 47. Since the threshold for controlling the House is set at 218 seats, Democrats would have to add around four additional seats to take the majority. If they were to achieve that control, the "gavel" of the presidency would pass into Democratic hands, which would allow them to determine which legislative initiatives come to a vote.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, reflect a clear tilt toward a Democratic victory. As of October 29, these platforms assigned a 67% probability to Democrats winning both chambers, a 28% chance of a scenario with a Democratic House and Republican Senate, and only a 6% chance of a Republican double victory. In addition, betting markets place the probability of Democrats taking the House of Representatives at 93%. With these percentages, Democratic control of both chambers is seen as a plausible outcome, although far from guaranteed.
The chief market analyst at FP Markets, Aaron Hill, commented: "With U.S. stock indices at all-time highs, a key question —and, let’s be honest, an obvious one— for many investors is whether demand for stocks will be able to hold up after the midterm elections. While I am the first to point out that history never guarantees future behavior, JP Morgan studies suggest that, since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns in the year following each midterm election. In my opinion, if Congress is divided, not much will change, which could even ease some of the pressure on longer-term bond yields. Conversely, a decisive victory for the Democratic Party would raise questions about corporate taxes and regulation, which could act as a drag on stocks".
In an effort to capitalize on possible market moves stemming from election results, FP Markets clients have access to an extensive selection of asset classes through top-tier trading platforms. These include CFDs on U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, major currency pairs against the dollar, as well as key commodities such as gold and oil, allowing them to react in real time to price fluctuations as the results become known.
Profile and regulation of FP Markets
FP Markets is a multi-regulated global broker, awarded on multiple occasions, based in Sydney, Australia since 2005. The firm offers its clients more than 10,000 CFD instruments across seven asset classes, accessible through industry-leading platforms such as MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TradingView and cTrader.
On the regulatory front, FP Markets is supervised by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Financial Services Authority (FSA) of Seychelles, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa and the Capital Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya.
For more information, visit www.fpmarkets.com
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