The battle for the U.S. Senate will be decided this Tuesday in a small group of states where elections appear more competitive than in previous races. Democrats need to take four net seats from Republicans to win the majority, but before that they must protect some of the seats they already control.
Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 seats up for election, and Democrats 13. However, an important part of Republican territory voted heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential elections, which forces the opposition to compete in states that are traditionally conservative.
According to the Cook Political Report ranking collected by The Wall Street Journal on the eve of Election Day, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Míchigan, Ohio and Texas are among the seven contests considered the closest.
Georgia and other states that may influence the final distribution of seats are added to them.
Texas: James Talarico tries to break a long Republican hegemony
Texas is one of the most closely watched races of the election night. The Democrat James Talarico faces the Republican Ken Paxton, who won his party’s primaries against Senator John Cornyn.
The state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988 and Trump won a wide advantage there in 2024.
Talarico’s candidacy has attracted significant financial resources. According to data published by Axios, the Democrat reported raising $64 million during the third quarter of the year, compared with the $18 million attributed to Paxton.
The competitiveness of the contest has led top election analysts to pay special attention to Texas, although the state’s track record forces caution when interpreting polls.
Míchigan: the progressive Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers
Míchigan offers a battle of a different kind. Here it is the Democrats who defend the seat left vacant by Gary Peters.
His candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, a doctor and former head of the state’s health department, represents the party’s progressive wing and faces the Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and former FBI agent.
El-Sayed won primaries that reflected the internal differences between the progressive and moderate sectors of the Democratic Party.
Trump won Míchigan in 2024 by a narrow margin, while the state has also elected Democratic senators over the past decades.
The importance of this contest lies in the fact that a Democratic defeat would force the party to win still more Republican seats in order to achieve a majority.
Georgia: Jon Ossoff defends his seat in a swing state
In Georgia, the Democratic senator Jon Ossoff seeks re-election against the Republican Mike Collins.
Georgia has changed hands in the last three presidential elections: Trump won in 2016, Joe Biden prevailed in 2020, and Trump regained the state in 2024.
Ossoff arrived in the Senate in 2021, after a runoff that helped deliver control of the Upper House to the Democrats.
His re-election has particular importance because it is one of the states that Trump won in 2024 and where Democrats defend a seat.
Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska: Democratic opportunities
In Maine, the Republican Susan Collins seeks re-election against the Democrat Troy Jackson. The senator has spent decades in Washington and has cultivated a distinct profile within her party, although she faces a competitive race.
In Ohio, the Democrat Sherrod Brown tries to return to the Senate against the Republican Jon Husted, who occupies the seat after his appointment to fill a vacancy. The state is holding a special election.
Iowa faces the Democrat Josh Turek against the Republican Ashley Hinson, in an open election after Joni Ernst’s decision not to seek another term.
Kansas presents the candidacy of the Democrat Adam Hamilton against Republican senator Roger Marshall, while Alaska faces former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola with the Republican Dan Sullivan.
The six contests offer possibilities for party change, although their political backgrounds, candidates, and electoral systems are different.
A majority that depends on several simultaneous results
Democrats cannot limit themselves to achieving strong results in one or two states. They need to combine wins in Republican-leaning territories with keeping their own seats.
In addition, each election is decided independently. A Democratic advantage in the national Congressional vote does not guarantee a majority in the Senate, where each state has two representatives regardless of its population.
The outcome of these races will determine whether Trump retains the support of the Upper House for his appointments and legislative agenda, or whether he will have to negotiate with a new Democratic majority.