A poll conducted by the Elabe institute for the French network BFMTV ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for April 18, 2027 places the leader of La France Insumisa (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in a solid second position after having gained ground in recent weeks, only behind the leader of the far right, Marine Le Pen, who would take first place.
According to this poll, the far-right leader would consolidate as the favorite in the first round with a support range that moves between 31 and 33 percent of the votes, while Mélenchon would continue his recent upward trend to reach, at minimum, 17 percent intention to vote.
The study also reflects the emergence of the Olympic five-time judo champion Teddy Riner, who is attributed 5 percent intention to vote after announcing his candidacy. If these Elabe projections are confirmed, the former prime minister and Macronist aspirant Gabriel Attal would be relegated to the background with barely 4 percent support.
At the same time, both Les Républicains, led by Bruno Retailleau, and the mayor of Le Havre, Édouard Philippe, would be making way, a trend that would also affect the social-democratic candidate Raphaël Glucksmann.
Elabe’s polling work considers six different configurations of the presidential contest, depending on which candidates ultimately present themselves within each political bloc.
Despite these variations, the poll projections indicate that the campaign’s momentum centers on three main figures: Teddy Riner, who would have risen notably by attracting voters outside both the traditional left and the traditional right, and the possibility of a second-round showdown between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.
In that hypothetical final head-to-head, the survey anticipates a clear advantage for the far-right candidate, who would defeat the left-wing leader with 68.5 percent of the votes versus 31.5 percent.