Only 23% of the German citizenry believes that Chancellor Friedrich Merz will last until the end of the current legislature at the head of the coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), so the next general elections would be held at the beginning of 2029, according to a YouGov poll released this Sunday.
According to this survey, 13% of those surveyed expect the government alliance to break before the end of 2026, while 44% place the possible breakup at some point in 2027 or 2028. In addition, 20% of the participants in the study, conducted from a sample of 2,202 eligible voters, declare themselves undecided or prefer not to respond.
Among the electorate of the CDU and its sister party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), more than half, 53%, believe that the Executive will not last until 2029, compared to 32% who trust that the coalition will complete its term. Among SPD supporters, pessimism also prevails: 46% take for granted that there will be early elections, while only 34% think that the Government will complete the legislature.
The modest results achieved by both the SPD and the CDU in the regional elections held since September, along with the advance of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), have fueled rumors about a possible early electoral call. This is compounded by the growing disagreement within the Executive on economic policy and social reforms, which has deteriorated the internal stability of the coalition.
Despite this context, the General Secretary of the CDU, Franziska Hoppermann, has denied that the Government is in danger of falling. "Everyone is aware of their responsibility," she emphasized in an interview published by the Munich newspaper 'Abendzeitung'.
Hoppermann has stressed the urgency of undertaking structural changes after two decades without deep reforms, marked by the increase in public debt and security problems. In this regard, she cited the recent upward revision of Germany's economic growth forecast as an encouraging sign. "What we are doing is having an effect," she pointed out.