Donald Trump has pointed to Iran as the likely responsible party for the drone attack that has forced Saudi Arabia to temporarily close its strategic East-West pipeline, one of the most important energy infrastructures in the Middle East and the main Saudi alternative for exporting crude oil without crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Asked this Saturday during his visit to Ireland whether he believes Tehran is behind the attack, the U.S. president responded: “I think so, probably”. Trump did not publicly provide evidence linking the Iranian government directly to the operation.
The attack was carried out using several drones and hit different points of the infrastructure in the regions of Riyadh and Medina. Saudi Arabia decided to close the pipeline as a precaution while its technical teams inspect the damage and determine when pumping can be resumed. The attacks also left several people injured, although Saudi authorities have not detailed their number or severity.
Iraq confirms that the drones came from its territory
The main news known this Saturday comes from Baghdad. The Iraqi government has confirmed that the attacks on the Saudi pipeline were launched from Iraqi territory, specifically from the province of Maysan, in the southeast of the country and near the Iranian border.
The Iraqi prime minister has ordered an investigation and has dismissed the military head of operations in the province after it was determined that the drones originated from that area.
Maysan is a region where historically Shia militias backed by Iran have operated, but this fact alone does not equate to proving that Tehran directly ordered the attack.
For now, no group has officially claimed responsibility for the operation.
Saudi Arabia avoids responding militarily for now
Riyadh has also confirmed that the drones came from Iraq and has described what happened as a threat to its security and strategic infrastructures.
However, Saudi Arabia has decided not to respond militarily immediately. The Saudi government has agreed to give Iraqi authorities time to investigate and take measures against those responsible.
The kingdom warns, however, that it reserves the right to take “all necessary measures” to protect its territory and interests.
Baghdad has condemned the attacks and has initiated an operation to locate their authors. Iraq has also closed border crossings with Iran amid rising regional tension.
Why this pipeline is so important
The East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, crosses Saudi Arabia from east to west for about 1,200 kilometers.
The infrastructure transports oil from the large producing fields in the east of the country to Yanbu, on the Red Sea coast, allowing tankers to be loaded without having to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Its importance has increased enormously in recent months due to the conflict between the United States and Iran and the severe restrictions on navigation in Hormuz.
In recent months, the pipeline was transporting approximately between four and five million barrels daily, an amount equivalent to around 4% or 5% of the world's oil supply.
The maximum capacity of the infrastructure is even higher and hovers around seven million barrels daily.
The Saudi alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily out of service
The closure comes at a particularly delicate moment.
Since the beginning of the current war between the United States and Iran, the traffic of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically reduced. Saudi Arabia had responded by diverting an increasing portion of its exports to the East-West pipeline.
The pipeline had thus become the major alternative route to get Saudi oil to international markets.
Now that outlet is also temporarily interrupted.
The Saudi Ministry of Energy insists that the closure is preventive while the infrastructure is inspected, but it has not yet communicated when pumping can be fully restored.
Oil surpasses 100 dollars again
Concerns about energy security are already being reflected in the markets.
International oil prices have once again risen above 100 dollars per barrel during the week, driven by attacks on infrastructure, difficulties in crossing Hormuz, and the deterioration of the situation in the Red Sea.
The problem does not only affect Saudi Arabia. The combination of several simultaneous crises threatens the two major maritime exits of the region: Hormuz, to the east of the Arabian Peninsula, and Bab el Mandeb, to the west, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
A prolonged interruption would raise the costs of energy transportation and could subsequently be passed on to fuel prices and international inflation.
The Houthis are also advancing in the Red Sea
The attack on the pipeline coincides with a new offensive by the Houthis of Yemen, allies of Iran, around one of the most important maritime routes on the planet.
The Houthi forces have taken control of the strategic island of Mayun —also known as Perim—, located in the Bab el Mandeb strait, at the southern entrance of the Red Sea. They have also advanced on the port of Mocha.
The island occupies a critical position for navigation that connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and, through the Suez Canal, with the Mediterranean.
The Houthis claim that navigation remains safe for most vessels, although they maintain restrictions on certain Saudi ships.
Trump claims to have spoken with Bin Salman
Trump has also confirmed that he has had a conversation with the Saudi crown prince, Mohamed bin Salman, whom he has described as a “good friend.”
The U.S. president has tried to publicly downplay the concern and has assured that the situation will eventually resolve itself.
He has also revealed contacts from his Administration with the Houthis. According to Trump, the Yemeni group has conveyed that it does not want a direct military intervention from the United States.
Reuters had previously reported that Bin Salman had requested U.S. support against the Houthi advance in Yemen and that Washington, at least initially, had ruled out direct intervention, although it would have offered cooperation in intelligence matters.
Iran denies militarily directing its allies
Trump's accusation comes in a scenario where Washington and its allies have long been pointing to Iran for its support of various armed groups in the region.
Tehran acknowledges maintaining a close political relationship with the Houthis and other allied organizations, but denies directly directing their military operations.
Reuters reported this week, citing Iranian sources, that members of the Revolutionary Guard had provided direct guidance to the Houthis during their recent offensive and that Tehran had promised more weapons and funding. Iran publicly rejects directing the group militarily.
In the specific case of the Saudi pipeline, no public evidence has been presented so far that allows determining who ordered the launch of the drones.
A key infrastructure at the center of the escalation
The attack places Saudi Arabia in front of a particularly serious strategic problem.
The Strait of Hormuz is practically blocked, the Houthis are increasing their pressure on Bab el Mandeb, and now the pipeline that allowed avoiding Hormuz has had to close temporarily.
The pipeline had been moving up to five million barrels daily over the last few months, so a prolonged interruption would have the capacity to worsen the tension in the global oil market.
Trump has pointed directly at Iran, although cautiously: “probably” is behind the attack. Iraq, for its part, has only confirmed one piece of information so far: the drones were launched from its territory.
The investigation must now determine who materially executed the operation, who ordered it, and to what extent there is a direct connection with Tehran.