The PP and Vox estimate that they will be able to gather between 125 and 140 senators thanks to the pact sealed this Monday to run in a coordinated manner for the Senate, out of the 209 seats that are elected in the elections on November 29, according to sources familiar with the negotiation.
The agreement, designed to concentrate the vote of the right-wing bloc and counteract the alliance of the PSOE with Frente Amplio and the territorial leftist forces, contemplates that Vox renounces to compete with its own list in six provinces: Las Palmas, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Cádiz, Valencia, Castellón, and Balearic Islands. In these constituencies, the PP will integrate an independent proposed by Vox into its candidacy, granting them "the second or third position" on the list.
Furthermore, Santiago Abascal's party will only present one candidate in another fourteen provinces: Sevilla, Huelva, Asturias, Badajoz, Álava, Navarra, Cáceres, Huesca, Zaragoza, Alicante, Granada, Cuenca, Pontevedra, and Jaén. In the remaining twenty-three provinces, Vox will run for the Senate without changes compared to a usual election.
For its part, the PP has decided not to present a candidacy in Guipúzcoa, a territory where it has not obtained representation in the Upper House for 26 years, nor in Gerona and Tarragona, two provinces where the 'popular' have never achieved an elected senator.
In the XV Legislature, the PP had 119 senators elected at the polls in 2023 and 23 more appointed by the regional parliaments. Vox, for its part, did not achieve any elected senator in the general elections of 2023, although it maintained five representatives by regional appointment.
With the calculations handled in the negotiation, PP and Vox expect to add between eleven and twelve additional senators in the six provinces where Vox withdraws: three more for the PP in Las Palmas; two in Valencia; another two in Santa Cruz de Tenerife; two in Cádiz; between one and two in Castellón; and one more in Balearic Islands. Additionally, in Tarragona, where the PP has withdrawn, "there is a high possibility" that Vox will achieve a seat, according to internal projections.
Similarly, in the constituencies where Vox only presents one candidate, "the possibility opens" to bolster the PP, either by increasing the number of senators, safeguarding those considered at risk, or preventing the left from prevailing in the most contested provinces.
The consulted sources estimate that the total number of new senators from Vox could be around ten: the six that they would obtain in the provinces where the PP includes them in their list, plus the potential seats in Tarragona, Murcia, Almería, and Ceuta.
With this design, the leaderships of Santiago Abascal and Alberto Núñez Feijóo trust that, of the 209 senators elected on 29N, the sum of their parliamentary groups will reach a range of between 125 and 140 seats in the Upper House.