The Government has ordered the precautionary blocking in Spain of prediction market platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi, a decision that affects services that allowed betting money on political, economic, or international events, from a hypothetical arrest of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero to possible military decisions by Donald Trump.
The measure comes from the General Directorate for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ), dependent on the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and the 2030 Agenda, which considers that these types of platforms operate in practice as gambling services without a license to do so in Spain.
The decision is a blow to a model that had gained international visibility by turning current events into speculative products on which users could risk money based on their predictions.
What are Polymarket and these types of platforms
Polymarket has become one of the best-known platforms within the so-called prediction market, a model that mixes betting, speculation, and current affairs analysis.
Its operation is simple: users buy positions on the probability of a specific event occurring. The more likely the event seems, the higher the price; if it finally happens, those who bet correctly obtain profits.
In practice, this has allowed markets on elections, wars, judicial decisions, international politics, or business movements. Among the examples that have circulated publicly are predictions about international conflicts, decisions by political leaders, or judicial scenarios of great media impact.
Why Spain is acting now
The legal key lies in the legal fit. The General Directorate for the Regulation of Gambling understands that, although these platforms present themselves as predictive markets or financial products based on events, their operation fits the definition of gambling regulated in Spain: there is an economic bet on an uncertain event with an expectation of profit.
This implies that they must have administrative authorization and be subject to Spanish gambling regulations. According to the regulator, these platforms operated without a license and without applying the obligations required of authorized operators.
What controls does Spanish law require
The Spanish gambling regulation requires legal operators to apply control mechanisms aimed at protecting users.
Among them are identity verification systems, restrictions for minors, controls on individuals excluded from gambling, preventive measures against addictive behaviors, and regulatory supervision.
The problem for Consumer Affairs is that international platforms like Polymarket escaped that framework while remaining accessible to Spanish users. This explains the precautionary blocking order.
Beyond the legal debate, these platforms have been generating controversy for some time due to the nature of some of their markets. Turning facts such as a war, a diplomatic crisis, an electoral process, or a possible judicial decision into objects of speculation raises ethical and regulatory doubts that several countries have been discussing for some time.
The appeal of the model lies precisely in this mix of current events, financial speculation, and betting logic. But for the Spanish regulator, the fit is clear: if money is bet on an uncertain event, it is considered gambling and must comply with the same rules as the rest of the sector.